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CEEC vs. PIGS: a comparative panel assessment of financial sustainability and twin deficits

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Listed author(s):
  • Alberto Bagnai

    ()

    (University of Pescara)

Abstract

This paper analyses the relation between the external and government deficits in a panel of CEEC economies and, separately, in PIGS economies. We first assess by panel unit root tests whether the fiscal and external intertemporal budget constraints hold, and then examine the role of public and private expenditure in the dynamics of external indebtedness by panel regression. The results show the importance of private capital flows in the current external imbalances of European countries, with different implications for the two groups of countries considered.

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Paper provided by Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli in its series Working Papers LuissLab with number 1088.

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Date of creation: 2010
Handle: RePEc:lui:lleewp:1088
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Keywords: current account; budget deficit; panel data; twin deficits.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
  • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
  • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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  1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
  2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Alberto Bagnai, 2006. "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 137-155, November.
  4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier.
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  7. Nigel A Chalk & Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 00/81, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Anthony J. Makin, 2004. "The Current Account, Fiscal Policy, and Medium-Run Income Determination," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(3), pages 309-317, 07.
  9. Willem H. Buiter, 2006. "The 'Sense and Nonsense of Maastricht' Revisited: What Have we Learnt about Stabilization in EMU?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44, pages 687-710, November.
  10. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-223, May.
  11. McCallum, Bennett T, 1984. "Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 123-135, February.
  12. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  13. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  14. Fabio Busetti & Lorenzo Forni & Andrew Harvey & Fabrizio Venditti, 2007. "Inflation Convergence and Divergence within the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 95-121, June.
  15. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
  16. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
  17. George S. Tavlas, 1993. "The ‘New’ Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 663-685, November.
  18. Fleming, J Marcus, 1971. "On Exchange Rate Unification," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 81(323), pages 467-488, September.
  19. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 135-152, June.
  20. Leonardo Bartolini & Amartya Lahiri, 2006. "Twin deficits, twenty years later," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Oct).
  21. Lori Leachman & Bill Francis, 2002. "Twin Deficits: Apparition or Reality?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1121-1132.
  22. Salvatore, Dominick, 2006. "Twin deficits in the G-7 countries and global structural imbalances," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 701-712, September.
  23. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  24. John Elder & Peter E. Kennedy, 2001. "Testing for Unit Roots: What Should Students Be Taught?," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 137-146, January.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. A Biagio su Modigliani e la BCE
    by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2016-03-06 16:43:00

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