IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Budgetary and External Imbalances Relationship : a Panel Data Diagnostic

  • António Afonso
  • Christophe Rault

We assess the cointegration relationship between current account and budget balances, and effective real exchange rates, using recent bootstrap panel cointegration techniques and SUR methods. We investigate the magnitude of the relationship between the two imbalances for each country for the period 1970-2007, and for different EU and OECD country groupings. The panel cointegration tests used allow for within and between correlation, while the SUR results show both positive and negative effects of budget balances on current account balances for several countries. The magnitude of the effects varies across countries, and there is no evidence pointing to a direct and close relationship between budgetary and current account balances.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2008/45.

in new window

Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp452008
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Roubini, N., 1989. "Current Account And Budget Deficits In An Intertemporal Model Of Consumption And Taxation Smoothing. A Solution To The "Feldstein-Horioka" Puzzel," Papers 569, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  2. Afonso, António & Rault, Christophe, 2007. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Working Paper Series 0820, European Central Bank.
  3. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, 07.
  4. MOON, Hyungsik Roger & PERRON, Benoit., 2002. "Testing for a Unit Root in Panels with Dynamic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 2002-18, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  5. Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2005. "Twin Deficits: Squaring Theory, Evidence and Common Sense," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/22, European University Institute.
  6. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Normandin, Michel, 1999. "Budget deficit persistence and the twin deficits hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 171-193, October.
  8. Jeffrey A. Rosensweig & Ellis W. Tallman, 1991. "Fiscal policy and trade adjustment: are the deficits really twins?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 91-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  11. Menzie David Chinn & Eswar Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 00/46, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Lori Leachman & Bill Francis, 2002. "Twin Deficits: Apparition or Reality?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1121-1132.
  13. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  14. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  16. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel & Müller, Gernot J., 2005. "Productivity shocks, budget deficits and the current account," Working Paper Series 0509, European Central Bank.
  17. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
  18. Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2006. "Cointegration in Panel Data with Breaks and Cross-Section Dependence," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/5, European University Institute.
  19. Florian Pelgrin & Alain de Serres, 2003. "The Decline in Private Saving Rates in the 1990s in OECD Countries: How Much Can Be Explained by Non-wealth Determinants?," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2003(1), pages 117-153.
  20. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2000. "Current account dynamics and expected future budget deficits: some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-271, April.
  21. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1994. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-044, University of California at Berkeley.
  22. Chihwa Kao & Suzanne McCoskey, 1997. "A Residual-Based Test Of The Null Of Cointegration In Panel Data," Econometrics 9711002, EconWPA.
  23. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
  24. L. Vanessa Smith & Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Newbold, 2004. "More powerful panel data unit root tests with an application to mean reversion in real exchange rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 147-170.
  25. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  26. Westerlund, Joakim & Edgerton, David L., 2007. "A panel bootstrap cointegration test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 185-190, December.
  27. Christiane Nickel & Katja Funke, 2006. "Does Fiscal Policy Matter for the Trade Account? A Panel Cointegration Study," IMF Working Papers 06/147, International Monetary Fund.
  28. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 2006. "Reflections on the trade deficit and fiscal policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 679-682, September.
  29. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  30. Enders, Walter & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1990. "Current Account and Budget Deficits: Twins or Distant Cousins?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 373-81, August.
  31. William G. Dewald & Michael Ulan, 1990. "The Twin-Deficit Illusion," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 9(3), pages 689-707, Winter.
  32. Stephen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 1989. "Are The Twin Deficits Really Related?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 7(4), pages 91-115, October.
  33. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  34. Cherneff, R V, 1976. "Policy Conflict and Coordination under Fixed Exchanges: The Case of an Upward Sloping IS Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1219-24, September.
  35. Martin Feldstein, 1992. "The Budget and Trade Deficits Aren't Really Twins," NBER Working Papers 3966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3, 00.
  37. Funke, Katja & Nickel, Christiane, 2006. "Does fiscal policy matter for the trade account? A panel cointegration study," Working Paper Series 0620, European Central Bank.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp452008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vitor Escaria)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.