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Short and Long-run Behaviour of Long-term Sovereign Bond Yields

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  • António Afonso
  • Christophe Rault

Abstract

This study assesses the short and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields in OECD countries, for the period 1973-2008. We employ a dynamic panel approach to reflect financial and economic integration, and to increase the performance and accuracy of the tests. Given the existence of cross-country dependence regarding sovereign yields and its determinants, we resort to simulation and bootstrap methods for the analysis. Results based on the Common Correlated Effect estimator of Pesaran (2006) and on Panel Error Correction Models to sort out short- and long-run fiscal developments show that in addition to common movements in sovereign yields, investors also consider country differences arising from specific factors (inflation, budgetary and current account imbalances, real effective exchange rates, and liquidity).

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Short and Long-run Behaviour of Long-term Sovereign Bond Yields," Working Papers Department of Economics 2010/19, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp192010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Laura Jaramillo & Yuanyan S Zhang, 2013. "Real Money Investors and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 13/254, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Tamai, Toshiki, 2016. "Public investment, the rate of return, and optimal fiscal policy in a stochastically growing economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-17.
    3. repec:bla:intfin:v:19:y:2016:i:3:p:311-332 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Papers 2012_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    5. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Sovereign Yield Spreads: Euro-Area Time-Varying Evidence," Working Papers REM 2017/20, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    6. António Afonso, & Manuel Reis, 2016. "Revisiting Sovereign Bond Spreads’Determinants in the EMU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/08, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Malešević Perović, Lena, 2015. "The impact of fiscal positions on government bond yields in CEE countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 301-316.
    8. Ryan van Lamoen & Simona Mattheussens & Martijn Dröes, 2017. "Quantitative easing and exuberance in government bond markets: Evidence from the ECB's expanded asset purchase program," DNB Working Papers 548, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2016. "Economic Volatility and Sovereign Yields’ Determinants: a Time-Varying Approach," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/04, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. repec:spr:endesu:v:19:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10668-016-9813-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Martijn (M.I.) Droes & Ryan van Lamoen & Simona Mattheussens, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Exuberance in Government Bond Markets: Evidence from the ECB's Expanded Assets Purchase Program," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-080/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. António Afonso & Frederico Silva Leal, 2017. "Sovereign yield spreads in the EMU: crisis and structural determinants," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/09, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    13. Dogan, Eyup & Seker, Fahri, 2016. "Determinants of CO2 emissions in the European Union: The role of renewable and non-renewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 429-439.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-term yields; EU; financial integration; panel cointegration; bootstrap.;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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