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Long-term Government Bond Yields and Economic Forecasts: Evidence for the EU

Author

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  • António Afonso

Abstract

I use a panel of semi-annual vintages of growth and fiscal forecasts of the European Commission, covering the period 1998:II-2008:II, to assess its effects on 10-year government yields for 14 EU countries. Results show that yields increase with better growth forecasts, and with decreases in budget balance-to-GDP ratios, signalling that sovereigns may need to pay more to finance in the market higher budget deficits. Key words: interest rates, macro forecasts, EU.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso, 2009. "Long-term Government Bond Yields and Economic Forecasts: Evidence for the EU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2009/38, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp382009
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    Cited by:

    1. Benedict Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & João Jalles & Bernat Adrogue, 2023. "Climate Change and Government Borrowing Costs: A Triple Whammy for Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers REM 2023/0295, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Théo METZ, 2024. "New fiscal transparency index and public debt borrowing costs," Working Papers of BETA 2024-50, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. António Afonso & Jorge Silva, 2012. "The Fiscal Forecasting Track Record of the European Commission and Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/37, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Panagiotis Petrakis & Emmanuel Papadakis & Nikoleta Daniilopoulou, 2012. "Public Statements on Sovereign Yield Spreads:The Greek Case," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 6(2), pages 5-16, December.
    5. Kontonikas, Alexandros & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Afonso, António, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-88, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    6. Serhan Cevik & Belma Öztürkkal, 2021. "Contagion of fear: Is the impact of COVID‐19 on sovereign risk really indiscriminate?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 134-154, August.
    7. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Mina Kazemi, 2019. "The Effects of Macroeconomic, Fiscal and Monetary Policy Announcements on Sovereign Bond Spreads: An Event Study from the EMU," Working Papers REM 2019/67, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. Anghel, Dan Gabriel & Boitan, Iustina Alina & Marchewka-Bartkowiak, Kamilla, 2025. "Climate risk impact on Treasury securities pricing: A global perspective of short-term and long-term period," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    9. Mr. Serhan Cevik & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds," IMF Working Papers 2020/079, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Cevik, Serhan & Jalles, João Tovar, 2022. "This changes everything: Climate shocks and sovereign bonds⁎," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    11. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Sergio Sola, 2013. "Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates and Risk Premia in Open Economy," IHEID Working Papers 05-2013, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    12. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Vergos, Konstantinos, 2013. "Sovereign bond yield spillovers in the Euro zone during the financial and debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 258-272.
    13. Ernest Dautovic, 2017. "The effect of real-time fiscal policy on sovereign interest rates in OECD countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 167-185, January.
    14. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "Economic volatility and sovereign yields’ determinants: a time-varying approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 427-451, February.
    15. Afonso, António & Nunes, Ana Sofia, 2015. "Economic forecasts and sovereign yields," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 319-326.
    16. Gerhard Reitschuler & Rupert Sendlhofer, 2011. "Fiscal policy, trigger points and interest rates: Additional evidence from the U.S," Working Papers 2011-23, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    17. Shivam Sehgal & Jaspal Singh, 2025. "Impact of Global and Domestic Factors on Indian Government Bond Yields," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 32(2), pages 465-488, June.
    18. Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2019. "¿Cómo y qué tanto impacta la deuda pública a las tasas de interés de mercado?," Borradores de Economia 1077, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    19. Salvatore Dell’Erba & Sergio Sola, 2011. "Expected fiscal policy and interest rates in open economy," IHEID Working Papers 07-2011, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    20. Dell’Erba Salvatore & Sola Sergio, 2016. "Does fiscal policy affect interest rates? Evidence from a factor-augmented panel," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 395-437, June.
    21. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
    22. Ant Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2015. "Short- and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(37), pages 3971-3993, August.
    23. António Afonso & Jorge Silva, 2015. "The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1318-1329.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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