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The effects of macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary policy announcements on sovereign bond spreads: an event study from the EMU

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  • António Afonso
  • João Tovar Jalles
  • Mina Kazemi

Abstract

We assess the impact of announcements corresponding to different fiscal and monetary policy measures on the 10-year sovereign bond yield spreads (relative to Germany) of the 10 EMU countries during the period 01:1999 - 07:2016. Implementing pooled and country-fixed effects OLS regressions, we find that the European Commission’s (EC) releases of the excessive deficit procedure significantly affect the yield spreads. The EC releases of higher debt and better budget balance forecasts contribute to the rise and the decline of spreads, respectively. Moreover, we find that the announcements of the ECB’s key interest rates together with the longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) and the first covered bond purchase programme (CBPP1) negatively affect sovereign yield spreads in our sample of EMU countries.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Mina Kazemi, 2019. "The effects of macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary policy announcements on sovereign bond spreads: an event study from the EMU," EconPol Working Paper 22, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:econwp:_22
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    Cited by:

    1. Urbschat, Florian & Watzka, Sebastian, 2020. "Quantitative easing in the Euro Area – An event study approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 14-36.
    2. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Guillaume, Alexis, 2020. "Covid 19: a new challenge for the EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 14848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Philipp Mohl & Gilles Mourre & Sven Langedijk & Martijn Hoogeland, 2021. "Does Media Visibility Make EU Fiscal Rules More Effective?," European Economy - Discussion Papers 155, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Stéphanie Pamies & Nicolas Carnot & Anda Pătărău, 2021. "Do Fundamentals Explain Differences between Euro Area Sovereign Interest Rates?," European Economy - Discussion Papers 141, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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