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Thou Shalt Not Breach: The Impact on Sovereign Spreads of Noncomplying with the EU Fiscal Rules

Author

Listed:
  • Federico Diaz Kalan
  • Ms. Adina Popescu
  • Julien Reynaud

Abstract

There is evidence that fiscal rules, in particular well-designed rules, are associated with lower sovereign spreads. However, the impact of noncompliance with fiscal rules on spreads has not been examined in the literature. This paper estimates the effect of the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) on sovereign spreads of European Union member states. Based on a sample including the 28 European Union countries over the period 1999 to 2016, sovereign spreads of countries placed under an EDP are found to be on average higher compared to countries that are not under an EDP. The interpretation of this result is not straight-forward as different channels may be at play, in particular those related with the credibility and the design of the EU fiscal framework. The specification accounts for typical macroeconomic, fiscal, and financial determinants of sovereign spreads, the System Generalized Method of Moments estimator is used to control for endogeneity, and results are robust to a range of checks on variables and estimators.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Diaz Kalan & Ms. Adina Popescu & Julien Reynaud, 2018. "Thou Shalt Not Breach: The Impact on Sovereign Spreads of Noncomplying with the EU Fiscal Rules," IMF Working Papers 2018/087, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/087
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar & Kazemi, Mina, 2020. "The effects of macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary policy announcements on sovereign bond spreads," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Caselli, Francesca & Wingender, Philippe, 2021. "Heterogeneous effects of fiscal rules: The Maastricht fiscal criterion and the counterfactual distribution of government deficits✰," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Mina Kazemi, 2019. "The Effects of Macroeconomic, Fiscal and Monetary Policy Announcements on Sovereign Bond Spreads: An Event Study from the EMU," Working Papers REM 2019/67, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Havlik, Annika & Heinemann, Friedrich & Helbig, Samuel & Nover, Justus, 2022. "Dispelling the shadow of fiscal dominance? Fiscal and monetary announcement effects for euro area sovereign spreads in the corona pandemic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. European Fiscal Board (EFB), 2019. "Assessment of EU fiscal rules with a focus on the six and two-pack legislation," Reports 2019, European Fiscal Board.
    6. Schuster, Florian, 2023. "Spreads auf Staatsanleihezinsen, der EZB-Sicherheitenrahmen und Peripherieprämien in der Eurozone," Papers 277910, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    7. Francesca Caselli & Mr. Philippe Wingender, 2018. "Bunching at 3 Percent: The Maastricht Fiscal Criterion and Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 2018/182, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Ablam Estel Apeti & Bao-We-Wal Bambe & Jean-Louis Combes & Eyah Denise Edoh, 2023. "Original Sin: Fiscal Rules and Government Debt in Foreign Currency in Developing Countries," Working Papers hal-04130477, HAL.
    9. Philipp Mohl & Gilles Mourre & Sven Langedijk & Martijn Hoogeland, 2021. "Does Media Visibility Make EU Fiscal Rules More Effective?," European Economy - Discussion Papers 155, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Schuster, Florian, 2023. "Sovereign spreads, central bank collateral frameworks, and periphery premia in the Eurozone," Papers 277915, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    11. De Jong, Jasper F.M. & Gilbert, Niels D., 2020. "Fiscal discipline in EMU? Testing the effectiveness of the Excessive Deficit Procedure," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

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