IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbops/2022288.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Towards a single fiscal performance indicator

Author

Listed:
  • Benalal, Nicholai
  • Freier, Maximilian
  • Melyn, Wim
  • Van Parys, Stefan
  • Reiss, Lukas

Abstract

A key element of the European reform agenda is to simplify the EU fiscal governance framework by moving towards a single debt anchor and a single operational indicator as the basis for formulating fiscal targets and assessing compliance. This paper puts forward an in-depth analysis of two alternative fiscal performance indicators currently used in the EU fiscal framework: the change in the structural balance and the expenditure benchmark. Comparing these two indicators allows us to identify options for the design of a fiscal performance measure – such as assumptions on cyclical adjustment and the inclusion of fiscal variables – and assess their policy impact. Our paper finds that the expenditure benchmark used in the EU fiscal governance framework has advantages over the change in the structural balance. However, it still has scope for improvement. The paper also shows that taking account of interest payments in the expenditure benchmark would make fiscal policy more supportive of the monetary policy stance. JEL Classification: C54, E62, E65, F54, F47

Suggested Citation

  • Benalal, Nicholai & Freier, Maximilian & Melyn, Wim & Van Parys, Stefan & Reiss, Lukas, 2022. "Towards a single fiscal performance indicator," Occasional Paper Series 288, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2022288
    Note: 427376
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op288~b3b265ed14.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michal Andrle & John C Bluedorn & Luc Eyraud & Tidiane Kinda & Petya Koeva Brooks & Gerd Schwartz & Anke Weber, 2015. "Reforming Fiscal Governance in the European Union," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/9, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Leiner-Killinger, Nadine & Nerlich, Carolin, 2019. "Fiscal rules in the euro area and lessons from other monetary unions," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 3.
    3. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe, 2020. "Debt rule design in theory and practice: the SGP’s debt benchmark revisited," Working Paper Series 2379, European Central Bank.
    4. European Fiscal Board (EFB), 2020. "2020 annual report of the European Fiscal Board," Annual reports 2020, European Fiscal Board.
    5. ., 2016. "Central bank and monetary policy," Chapters, in: Shadow Banking in China, chapter 4, pages 92-117, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Carlos Fonseca Marinheiro, 2021. "The Expenditure Benchmark: Complex and Unsuitable for Independent Fiscal Institutions," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(3), pages 411-431, September.
    7. Michal Andrle & Mr. John C Bluedorn & Mr. Luc Eyraud & Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Ms. Petya Koeva Brooks & Mr. Gerd Schwartz & Miss Anke Weber, 2015. "Reforming Fiscal Governance in the European Union," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/009, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Blanchard, Olivier & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004. "Improving the SGP Through a Proper Accounting of Public Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Nicolas Carnot & Francisco de Castro, 2015. "The Discretionary Fiscal Effort: An Assessment of Fiscal Policy and Its Output Effect," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 63-94, December.
    10. Kamps, Christophe & Leiner-Killinger, Nadine, 2019. "Taking stock of the functioning of the EU fiscal rules and options for reform," Occasional Paper Series 231, European Central Bank.
    11. European Fiscal Board (EFB), 2018. "2018 annual report of the European Fiscal Board," Annual reports 2018, European Fiscal Board.
    12. Mario Alloza & Javier Andrés & Pablo Burriel & Iván Kataryniuk & Javier J. Pérez & Juan Luis Vega, 2021. "The reform of the european Union’s fiscal governance Framework in a new Macroeconomic environment," Occasional Papers 2121, Banco de España.
    13. Mr. Luc Eyraud & Mr. Tao Wu, 2015. "Playing by the Rules: Reforming Fiscal Governance in Europe," IMF Working Papers 2015/067, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe, 2020. "Debt rule design in theory and practice: the SGP’s debt benchmark revisited," Working Paper Series 2379, European Central Bank.
    2. Fernando González & Diego Martínez-López, 2021. "El diseño de reglas fiscales en gobiernos subcentrales. El caso de España," Policy Papers 2021-01, FEDEA.
    3. Mario Alloza & Javier Andrés & Pablo Burriel & Iván Kataryniuk & Javier J. Pérez & Juan Luis Vega, 2021. "La reforma del marco de gobernanza de la política fiscal de la Unión Europea en un nuevo entorno macroeconómico," Occasional Papers 2121, Banco de España.
    4. Mario Alloza & Javier Andrés & Pablo Burriel & Iván Kataryniuk & Javier J. Pérez & Juan Luis Vega, 2021. "The reform of the european Union’s fiscal governance Framework in a new Macroeconomic environment," Occasional Papers 2121, Banco de España.
    5. Marzia Romanelli & Pietro Tommasino & Emilio VadalÃ, 2022. "The future of European fiscal governance: a comprehensive approach," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 691, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Niels D. Gilbert & Jasper F.M. Jong, 2017. "Do European fiscal rules induce a bias in fiscal forecasts? Evidence from the Stability and Growth Pact," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-32, January.
    7. Federico Diaz Kalan & Ms. Adina Popescu & Julien Reynaud, 2018. "Thou Shalt Not Breach: The Impact on Sovereign Spreads of Noncomplying with the EU Fiscal Rules," IMF Working Papers 2018/087, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Ananya Kotia & Victor Duarte Lledo, 2016. "Do Subnational Fiscal Rules Foster Fiscal Discipline? New Empirical Evidence from Europe," IMF Working Papers 2016/084, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Luigi Marattin & Simone Meraglia & Raoul Minetti, 2022. "Sovereign bail‐outs and fiscal rules in a banking union," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(4), pages 1024-1055, October.
    10. Antonio Fatás, 2019. "Fiscal Policy, Potential Output, and the Shifting Goalposts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 684-702, September.
    11. Luc Eyraud & Xavier Debrun & Andrew Hodge & Victor Duarte Lledo & Catherine A Pattillo, 2018. "Second-Generation Fiscal Rules; Balancing Simplicity, Flexibility, and Enforceability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 18/04, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Căpraru, Bogdan & Georgescu, George & Sprincean, Nicu, 2022. "Do independent fiscal institutions cause better fiscal outcomes in the European Union?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    13. Mr. Alvar Kangur & Koralai Kirabaeva & Jean-Marc Natal & Simon Voigts, 2019. "How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?," IMF Working Papers 2019/200, International Monetary Fund.
    14. De Jong, Jasper F.M. & Gilbert, Niels D., 2020. "Fiscal discipline in EMU? Testing the effectiveness of the Excessive Deficit Procedure," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    15. Pirvu, Daniela & Dutu, Amalia & Enachescu, Carmen, 2019. "Analysing Of Government'S Fiscal Behaviour In The Eu Member States Through Clustering Procedure," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 10(1), pages 23-39.
    16. Christofzik, Désirée & Feld, Lars P. & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich & Yeter, Mustafa, 2018. "Uniting European fiscal rules: How to strenghten the fiscal framework," Working Papers 04/2018, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    17. Mr. Jeffrey R. Franks & Ms. Bergljot B Barkbu & Mr. Rodolphe Blavy & William Oman & Hanni Schoelermann, 2018. "Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?," IMF Working Papers 2018/010, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Ginters Buss & Patrick Gruning & Olegs Tkacevs, 2021. "Choosing the European Fiscal Rule," Working Papers 2021/03, Latvijas Banka.
    19. Ms. Burcu Hacibedel & Pierre Mandon & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Nathalie Pouokam, 2019. "Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/020, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Francesco Spadafora, 2019. "European integration in the time of mistrust," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 512, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMU; euro area; fiscal governance; Stability and Growth Pact.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F54 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Colonialism; Imperialism; Postcolonialism
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2022288. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.