Long-run and short-run determinants of sovereign bond yields in advanced economies
We analyze determinants of sovereign bond yields in 22 advanced economies over the 1980–2010 period using panel cointegration techniques. The application of the cointegration methodology allows distinguishing between long-run (debt-to-GDP ratio, potential growth) and short-run (inflation, short-term interest rates, etc.) determinants of sovereign borrowing costs. We find that in the long run, government bond yields increase by about 2 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in government debt-to-GDP ratio and by about 45 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in the potential growth rate. In the short run, sovereign bond yields deviate from the level determined by the long-run fundamentals, but about half of the deviation adjusts in one year. When considering the impact of the global financial crisis on sovereign borrowing costs in euro area countries, the estimations suggest that spreads against Germany in some European periphery countries exceeded the level determined by fundamentals in the aftermath of the crisis, while some North European countries have benefited from “safe-haven” flows.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 38 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Landshuter Str. 4, 93047 Regensburg|
Phone: +49-(0)941-943 54 10
Fax: +49-(0)941-943 54 27
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/621171
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wachtel, Paul & Young, John, 1987. "Deficit Announcements and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 1007-12, December.
- Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Caselli & Timothy Lane, 2004.
"Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
10788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ardagna Silvia & Caselli Francesco & Lane Timothy, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, August.
- Francesco Caselli, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service; Some Estimates for OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 98/55, International Monetary Fund.
- Ardagna, Silvia & Lane, Timothy & Caselli, Francesco, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," Scholarly Articles 2579739, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Caselli & Timothy Lane, 2005. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," CEP Discussion Papers dp0670, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Knot, Klaas & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in the European community," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 171-187, March.
- Jesper Lindé, 2001. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in a small open economy," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 65-83, Autumn.
- Martín González Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006.
"Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads,"
IDB Publications (Working Papers)
6703, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Martín González Rozada, 2005. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Business School Working Papers globalfactorsspreads, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Martín González Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Research Department Publications 4445, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- R. Glenn Hubbard & Eric M. Engen, 2004. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," AEI Economics Working Papers 50018, American Enterprise Institute.
- Thorbecke, Willem, 1993. "Why deficit news affects interest rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, February.
- Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013.
"The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis,"
Working Paper Series
1625, European Central Bank.
- Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
- Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "The Pricing of Sovereign Risk and Contagion during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 443-489, 07.
- Thomas Laubach, 2009.
"New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, 06.
- Thomas Laubach, 2003. "New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Eric M. Engen & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2004. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 10681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Plosser, Charles I., 1987. "Fiscal policy and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-367, September.
- Groba, Jonatan & Lafuente, Juan A. & Serrano, Pedro, 2013. "The impact of distressed economies on the EU sovereign market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2520-2532.
- Elmendorf, D.W., 1993. "Actual Budget Deficit Expectations and Interest Rates," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1639, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Richard Cebula, 2000. "Impact of budget deficits on ex post real long-term interest rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 177-179.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & Hagen, Jürgen von & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2006.
"Sovereign Risk Premiums in the European Government Bond Market,"
Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems
151, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012. "Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 975-995.
- Antonio Di Cesare & Giuseppe Grande & Michele Manna & Marco Taboga, 2012. "Recent estimates of sovereign risk premia for euro-area countries," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 128, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Evans, Paul, 1987. "Interest Rates and Expected Future Budget Deficits in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 34-58, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:38:y:2014:i:1:p:100-114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.