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Recent estimates of sovereign risk premia for euro-area countries

  • Antonio Di Cesare

    ()

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Giuseppe Grande

    ()

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Michele Manna

    ()

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Marco Taboga

    ()

    (Bank of Italy)

This paper examines the recent behavior of sovereign interest rates in the euro area, focusing on the 10 year yield spreads relative to Germany for Italy and other euro area countries. Both previous analyses and the new evidence presented in the paper suggest that, in recent months, for several countries the spread has increased to levels that are well above those that could be justified on the basis of fiscal and macroeconomic fundamentals. Among the possible reasons for this gap, the analysis focuses on the perceived risk of a break up of the euro area.

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File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2012-0128/QEF_128.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) with number 128.

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Date of creation: Sep 2012
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_128_12
Contact details of provider: Postal: Via Nazionale, 91 - 00184 Roma
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it

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  1. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2012. "Mispricing of Sovereign Risk and Multiple Equilibria in the Eurozone," CEPS Papers 6548, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  2. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2011. "What is the Risk of European Sovereign Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space, CDS Spreads and Market Pricing of Risk," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2914v9fh, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  3. Bernoth, Kerstin & Hagen, Jürgen von & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2006. "Sovereign Risk Premiums in the European Government Bond Market," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 151, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
  4. Kerstin Bernoth & Burcu Erdogan, 2010. "Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1078, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Eric M. Engen & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2005. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 83-160 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957, March.
  8. Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 388, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  9. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads; Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Attinasi, Maria-Grazia & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Nickel, Christiane, 2009. "What explains the surge in euro area sovereign spreads during the financial crisis of 2007-09?," Working Paper Series 1131, European Central Bank.
  11. Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October.
  12. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2012. "Mispricing of Sovereign Risk and Multiple Equilibria in the Eurozone," LICOS Discussion Papers 30412, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  13. Borgy, V. & Laubach, T. & Mésonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2011. "Fiscal Sustainability, Default Risk and Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads Markets," Working papers 350, Banque de France.
  14. Metiu, Norbert, 2012. "Sovereign risk contagion in the Eurozone," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 35-38.
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