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Expectations and systemic risk in EMU government bond spreads

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  • Canofari Paolo
  • Marini Giancarlo
  • Piersanti Giovanni

Abstract

This paper explores the determinants of 10-years sovereign bond spreads over the German Bund benchmark in the Euro Zone from 2000 to 2013, relying on cross-country quarterly data panel analysis. The paper focal point is the role of contagion and euro break-up risks in widening the sovereign bond yield differentials among EU member countries. Using a novel synthetic index capable of monitoring the sustainability of currency unions, the paper finds that market expectations of a euro’s break up and contagion from Greece were fundamentals drivers of sovereign risk premia in peripheral countries.
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Suggested Citation

  • Canofari Paolo & Marini Giancarlo & Piersanti Giovanni, 2014. "Expectations and systemic risk in EMU government bond spreads," wp.comunite 0113, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ter:wpaper:0113
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Giovanni Piersanti, 2015. "Strategic Interactions and Contagion Effects under Monetary Unions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(10), pages 1618-1629, October.
    2. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:524-538 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Paolo Canofari & Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2014. "Measuring Currency Pressure and Contagion Risks in Countries under Monetary Unions: The Case of Euro," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(4), pages 455-469, December.
    4. Szczypińska, Agnieszka, 2014. "Does the halo effect still hold? The (post-) crisis perspective for the euro candidates," MF Working Papers 18, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 30 Jan 2014.
    5. repec:eee:finsta:v:29:y:2017:i:c:p:72-91 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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