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Does the halo effect still hold? The (post-) crisis perspective for the euro candidates

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  • Szczypińska, Agnieszka

    () (Ministry of Finance in Poland)

Abstract

The euro area bond yield spreads have largely converged since the EMU creation. However, during the crisis most eurozone members reported a dramatic rise in government bond yield differentials to German bonds due to deteriorating public finance and liquidity conditions as well as increase in investors' risk aversion. This paper provides an empirical analysis of determinants of government bond yield spreads in the euro area in time of the crisis and the aftermath. It indicates the significance of countries' fiscal performance and liquidity risk in explaining the evolution of bond differentials. It also demonstrates the significant role of country perception reflected in forecasts and rating changes. Sovereign debt crisis led to a change in the perception of EMU sovereign debt market. Nowadays, euro adoption does not automatically imply the lower profitability of new EA members' bonds. The "euro area level of interest rate" does not exist anymore. It seems to be more conditional on countries' macroeconomic policy. However, on the basis of panel estimation, it turned out that in case of almost all euro-candidates the theoretical values of the EMU convergence criterion bond yields (as if they were the euro area members) would be significantly lower than the empirical ones. This suggests fiscal benefits from euro adoption might be substantial thus most countries with derogation should reassess their scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Szczypińska, Agnieszka, 2014. "Does the halo effect still hold? The (post-) crisis perspective for the euro candidates," MF Working Papers 18, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 30 Jan 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:mfplwp:0018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tóth, Csaba G., 2017. "Own or inherited? The effect of national fiscal rules after changes of government," MPRA Paper 81178, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; sovereign bond yield spreads; convergence criteria; panel data;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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