IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants

  • António Afonso
  • Michael G. Arghyrou
  • George Bagdatoglou
  • Alexandros Kontonikas

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999 – August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant heterogeneity across countries, both in terms of the risk factors determining spreads over time as well as in terms of the magnitude of their impact on spreads. Our findings suggest that the relationship between euro area sovereign risk and the underlying fundamentals is strongly time-varying, turning from inactive to active since the onset of the global financial crisis and further intensifying during the sovereign debt crisis. As a general rule, the set of financial and macro spreads’ determinants in the euro area is rather unstable but generally becomes richer and stronger in significance as the crisis evolves.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_265453_en.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2013_05.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2013_05
Contact details of provider: Postal: Adam Smith Building, Glasgow G12 8RT
Phone: 0141 330 4618
Fax: 0141 330 4940
Web page: http://www.gla.ac.uk/schools/business/research/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/36, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  3. Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2011. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," European Economy - Economic Papers 436, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  4. Favero, Carlo A. & Pagano, Marco & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2008. "How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6649, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Giovanni Caggiano & Luciano Greco, 2012. "Fiscal and Financial Determinants of Eurozone Sovereign Spreads," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0148, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  6. Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2010. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: a time-varying coefficient approach," Discussion Papers 289, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  7. D’Agostino, Antonello & Ehrmann, Michael, 2014. "The pricing of G7 sovereign bond spreads – The times, they are a-changin," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 155-176.
  8. repec:edn:sirdps:423 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-W14, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. Christian Aßmann & Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2012. "Determinants of government bond spreads in the euro area: in good times as in bad," Empirica, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 341-356, August.
  11. Arghyrou, Michael G & Tsoukalas, John D., 2010. "The Greek Debt Crisis: Likely Causes, Mechanics and Outcomes," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2010/3, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  12. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads; Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Favero, Carlo A. & Missale, Alessandro, 2011. "Sovereign spreads in the Euro area: Which prospects for a Eurobond?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8637, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Viral V. Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2011. "A Pyrrhic Victory? - Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," NBER Working Papers 17136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 388, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  16. David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2004. "Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables," Economics Papers 2004-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  17. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957, March.
  18. Clive Granger & Namwon Hyung & Yongil Jeon, 2001. "Spurious regressions with stationary series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 899-904.
  19. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2012. "Mispricing of Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Stability in the Eurozone," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(6), pages 866-880, November.
  20. Edda Zoli & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/222, International Monetary Fund.
  21. repec:ags:aaea07:387 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Simone Manganelli & Guido Wolswijk, 2009. "What drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 191-240, 04.
  23. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "The Euro area sovereign debt crisis: safe haven, credit rating agencies and the spread of the fever from Greece, Ireland and Portugal," Working Paper Series 1419, European Central Bank.
  24. repec:ags:aaea07:423 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2013_05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jeanette Findlay)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.