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The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion

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  • Michael G. Arghyrou
  • Alexandros Kontonikas

Abstract

We offer a detailed empirical investigation of the European sovereign debt crisis based on the theoretical model by Arghyrou and Tsoukalas (2010). We find evidence of a marked shift in market pricing behaviour from a ‘convergence-trade’ model before August 2007 to one driven by macro-fundamentals and international risk thereafter. The majority of EMU countries have experienced contagion from Greece. There is no evidence of significant speculation effects originating from CDS markets. Finally, the escalation of the Greek debt crisis since November 2009 is confirmed as the result of an unfavourable shift in countryspecific market expectations. Our findings highlight the necessity of structural, competitiveness-inducing reforms in periphery EMU countries and institutional reforms at the EMU level enhancing intra-EMU economic monitoring and policy co-ordination.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2010. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Working Papers 2010_25, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2010_25
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro-area; crisis; spreads; fundamentals; expectations; contagion; speculation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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