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What drives provincial-Canada yield spreads?

Author

Listed:
  • Laurence Booth
  • George Georgopoulos
  • Walid Hejazi

Abstract

Although recent research has led to a deeper understanding of the factors determining yields on long-term Canada bonds, there has been little corresponding work on provincial bonds. By using a carefully constructed new data set, we establish two important results. First, provincial fiscal positions (debt and deficits) are an important factor in determining yield spreads between provincial and Canada bonds. Second, we show that provincial bonds are a substitute for corporate debt, in that during recessionary `flights to quality' their yields react like those on corporate bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence Booth & George Georgopoulos & Walid Hejazi, 2007. "What drives provincial-Canada yield spreads?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 1008-1032, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:40:y:2007:i:3:p:1008-1032
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    2. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2009. "Government risk premiums in the bond market: EMU and Canada," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 371-384, September.
    3. Dhritidyuti Bose & Rajeev Jain & Lakshmanan L, 2011. "Determinants of Primary Yield Spreads of States in India: An Econometric Analysis," Working Papers id:4370, eSocialSciences.
    4. Beck, Roland & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Hantzsche, Arno & Rau-Göhring, Matthias, 2017. "Determinants of sub-sovereign bond yield spreads – The role of fiscal fundamentals and federal bailout expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 72-98.
    5. Sergio Sola & Geremia Palomba, 2015. "Sub-National Government’s Risk Premia; Does Fiscal Performance Matter?," IMF Working Papers 15/117, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Lars P. Feld & Alexander Kalb & Marc-Daniel Moessinger & Steffen Osterloh, 2013. "Sovereign Bond Market Reactions to Fiscal Rules and No-Bailout Clauses - The Swiss Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 4195, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Feld, Lars P. & Kalb, Alexander & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Osterloh, Steffen, 2017. "Sovereign bond market reactions to no-bailout clauses and fiscal rules – The Swiss experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 319-343.
    8. Sola, Sergio & Palomba, Geremia, 2016. "Sub-nationals' risk premia in fiscal federations: Fiscal performance and institutional design," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 165-187.
    9. Van Hecke, Annelore, 2013. "Vertical debt spillovers in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 468-492.
    10. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012. "Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 975-995.
    11. Fazlioglu S., 2013. "Determinants of sovereign debt yield spreads under EMU: Pairwise approach," Research Memorandum 007, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    12. repec:kap:decono:v:165:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10645-017-9299-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Charles Wyplosz, 2012. "Fiscal Rules: Theoretical Issues and Historical Experiences," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 495-525 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Massimo Pinna, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis of the Municipal Bond Market in Italy: Sovereign Risk and Sub-Sovereign Levels of Government," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 68-94, September.
    15. Mustapha Olalekan Ojo & Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2017. "A time-frequency analysis of the Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve," NIPE Working Papers 12/2017, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    16. Hattori, Takahiro & Miyake, Hiroki, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Yield Determinants in Japan’s Municipal Bond Market: Does Credit Risk Premium Exist?," MPRA Paper 67127, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. repec:eee:reveco:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:174-192 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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