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On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants

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Listed author(s):
  • Afonso, António
  • Arghyrou, Michael G.
  • Bagdatoglou, George
  • Kontonikas, Alexandros

Abstract

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999 – August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant heterogeneity across countries, both in terms of the risk factors determining spreads over time as well as in terms of the magnitude of their impact on spreads. Our findings suggest that the relationship between euro area sovereign risk and the underlying fundamentals is strongly timevarying, turning from inactive to active since the onset of the global financial crisis and further intensifying during the sovereign debt crisis. As a general rule, the set of financial and macro spreads’ determinants in the euro area is rather unstable but generally becomes richer and stronger in significance as the crisis evolves.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10943/474
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Paper provided by Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) in its series SIRE Discussion Papers with number 2013-47.

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Date of creation: 2013
Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:474
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Keywords: euro area; crisis; spreads; time-series analysis; time-varying relationship;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
  • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
  • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
  • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
  • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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Cited by:

  1. Dufrénot, Gilles & Gente, Karine & Monsia, Frédia, 2016. "Macroeconomic imbalances, financial stress and fiscal vulnerability in the euro area before the debt crises: A market view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 123-146.
  2. Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 126-145.
  3. Özmen, Erdal & Doğanay Yaşar, Özge, 2016. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads, credit ratings and global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 93-101.

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