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On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants

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  • Afonso, António
  • Arghyrou, Michael G.
  • Bagdatoglou, George
  • Kontonikas, Alexandros

Abstract

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999 – August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant heterogeneity across countries, both in terms of the risk factors determining spreads over time as well as in terms of the magnitude of their impact on spreads. Our findings suggest that the relationship between euro area sovereign risk and the underlying fundamentals is strongly timevarying, turning from inactive to active since the onset of the global financial crisis and further intensifying during the sovereign debt crisis. As a general rule, the set of financial and macro spreads’ determinants in the euro area is rather unstable but generally becomes richer and stronger in significance as the crisis evolves.

Suggested Citation

  • Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Bagdatoglou, George & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2013. "On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-47, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:474
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10943/474
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dufrénot, Gilles & Gente, Karine & Monsia, Frédia, 2016. "Macroeconomic imbalances, financial stress and fiscal vulnerability in the euro area before the debt crises: A market view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 123-146.
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    4. Ortmans, Aymeric & Tripier, Fabien, 2021. "COVID-induced sovereign risk in the euro area: When did the ECB stop the spread?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Klose, Jens, 2019. "Measuring Redenomination Risks in the Euro Area - New Evidence from Survey Data," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203484, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Gatfaoui, Hayette, 2017. "Equity market information and credit risk signaling: A quantile cointegrating regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 48-59.
    7. Crifo, Patricia & Diaye, Marc-Arthur & Oueghlissi, Rim, 2017. "The effect of countries’ ESG ratings on their sovereign borrowing costs," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 13-20.
    8. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Mina Kazemi, 2019. "The Effects of Macroeconomic, Fiscal and Monetary Policy Announcements on Sovereign Bond Spreads: An Event Study from the EMU," Working Papers REM 2019/67, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João, 2019. "Quantitative easing and sovereign yield spreads: Euro-area time-varying evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 208-224.
    10. Beaupain, Renaud & Girard, Alexandre, 2020. "The value of understanding central bank communication," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 154-165.
    11. Pattnaik, Debidutta & Kumar, Satish & Burton, Bruce & Lim, Weng Marc, 2022. "Economic Modelling at thirty-five: A retrospective bibliometric survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    12. Giulia RIVOLTA, 2014. "An Event Study Analysis of ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 2014-02, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    13. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    14. Popescu, Alexandra & Turcu, Camelia, 2017. "Sovereign debt and systemic risk in the eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 275-284.
    15. Paniagua, Jordi & Sapena, Juan & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2017. "Sovereign debt spreads in EMU: The time-varying role of fundamentals and market distrust," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 187-206.
    16. Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 126-145.
    17. Filippidis, Michail & Filis, George & Kizys, Renatas, 2020. "Oil price shocks and EMU sovereign yield spreads," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    18. Georgoutsos, Dimitris & Moratis, George, 2017. "Bank-sovereign contagion in the Eurozone: A panel VAR Approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 146-159.
    19. Samir Kadiric, 2020. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: The impact of Brexit," EIIW Discussion paper disbei271, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    20. Özmen, Erdal & Doğanay Yaşar, Özge, 2016. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads, credit ratings and global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 93-101.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; crisis; spreads; time-series analysis; time-varying relationship;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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