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"Whatever it takes" to Resolve the European Sovereign Debt Crisis? Bond Pricing Regime Switches and Monetary Policy Effects

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  • António Afonso
  • Michael G. Arghyrou
  • María Dolores Gadea
  • Alexandros Kontonikas

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of unconventional monetary policy as a source of time-variation in the relationship between sovereign bond yield spreads and their fundamental determinants. Our results provide evidence of a new bond-pricing regime following the announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme in August 2012. This regime is characterised by a weakened link between spreads and fundamentals, but with higher spreads relative to the pre-crisis period and residual redenomination risk. We also find that unconventional monetary policy measures affect the pricing of sovereign risk not only directly, but also indirectly through changes in banking risk.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & María Dolores Gadea & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2017. ""Whatever it takes" to Resolve the European Sovereign Debt Crisis? Bond Pricing Regime Switches and Monetary Policy Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 6691, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6691
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    2. Klose, Jens, 2019. "Measuring Redenomination Risks in the Euro Area - New Evidence from Survey Data," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203484, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Wojciech Grabowski & Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska, 2021. "How have the European central bank’s monetary policies been affecting financial markets in CEE-3 countries?," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 43-83, March.
    4. António Afonso & Nuno Verdial, 2019. "Sovereign debt crisis in Portugal and in Spain," Working Papers REM 2019/0112, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Tholl, Johannes & Schwarzbach, Christoph & Pittalis, Sandro & von Mettenheim, Hans-Jörg, 2020. "Bank funding and the recent political development in Italy: What about redenomination risk?," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Brož, Václav & Kočenda, Evžen, 2018. "Dynamics and factors of inflation convergence in the European union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 93-111.
    7. António Afonso & Joana Sousa‐Leite, 2020. "The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to bank credit supply: Evidence from the TLTRO," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 151-171, September.
    8. Alessi, Lucia & Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Savona, Roberto, 2019. "Anatomy of a Sovereign Debt Crisis: CDS Spreads and Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," Working Papers 2019-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
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    10. Ralf Fendel & Frederik Neugebauer, 2018. "Country-Specific Euro Area Government Bond Yield Reactions to ECB’s Non-Standard Monetary Policy Announcements," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 18-02, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    11. Meriläinen, Jari-Mikko & Junttila, Juha, 2020. "The relationship between credit ratings and asset liquidity: Evidence from Western European banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    12. Beetsma, Roel & Van Spronsen, Josha, 2019. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Auction Cycles of Eurozone Sovereign Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 14099, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Hirsch, Patrick & Köhler, Ekkehard A. & Feld, Lars P. & Thomas, Tobias, 2020. ""Whatever it takes!": How tonality of TV-news affects government bond yield spreads during crises," Freiburg Discussion Papers on Constitutional Economics 20/09, Walter Eucken Institut e.V..
    14. Aymeric Ortmans & Fabien Tripier, 2020. "COVID-Induced Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area: When Did the ECB Stop the Contagion?," Working Papers 2020-11, CEPII research center.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; spreads; crisis; time-varying relationship; unconventional monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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