Sovereign Contagion in Europe: Evidence from the CDS Market
This paper addresses the following questions. Is there evidence of financial contagion in the Eurozone? To what extent a country's vulnerability to contagion depends on "fundamentals" as opposed the government's "credibility"? We look at the empirical evidence on European sovereigns CDS spreads and estimate an econometric model where a crucial role is played by time varying parameters. We model CDS spread changes at country level as reflecting three different factors: a Global sovereign risk factor, a European sovereign risk factor and a Financial intermediaries risk factor. Our main findings are as follows. First, Unlike the US subprime crisis which affected all European sovereign risks, the Greek crisis is largely a matter concerning the Euro Zone. Second, differences in vulnerability to contagion within the Eurozone are even more remarkable: the core Eurozone members become less vulnerable to EUZ contagion, possibly due to a safe-heaven effect, while peripheric countries become more vulnerable. Finally, market fundamentals go a long way in explaining these differences: they jointly explain between 54 and 80% of the cross-country variation in idiosyncratic risks and in the vulnerability to contagion, largely supporting the "wake-up call" hypothesis according to which market participants become more wary of market fundamentals during financial crises.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +39 051 209 8019 and 2600
Fax: +39 051 209 8040 and 2664
Web page: http://www.dse.unibo.it
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004.
"We Ran One Regression,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 799-810, December.
- David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-W17, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Economics Papers 2004-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983.
"Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
- Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
- Edda Zoli & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/222, International Monetary Fund.
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2001. "Correlation Analysis of Financial Contagion: What One Should Know before Running a Test," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 408, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996.
"Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1619, The World Bank.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2011.
"Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity,"
Harvard Business School Working Papers
11-094, Harvard Business School, revised Sep 2013.
- Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 16892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998.
"Financial crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and now,"
13877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kaminsky, Graciela L & Reinhart, Carmen M, 1998. "Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and Now," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 444-48, May.
- Alesina, A. & Prati, A. & Tabellini, G., 1989.
"Public Confidence And Debt Management: A Model And A Case Study Of Italy,"
5, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
- Alberto Alesina & Alessandro Prati & Guido Tabellini, 1989. "Public Confidence and Debt Management: A Model and A Case Study of Italy," NBER Working Papers 3135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alesina, Alberto F & Prati, Alessandro & Tabellini, Guido, 1989. "Public Confidence and Debt Management: A Model and a Case Study of Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 351, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Acharya, Viral V & Drechsler, Itamar & Schnabl, Philipp, 2011.
"A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8679, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Viral V. Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2011. "A Pyrrhic Victory? - Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," NBER Working Papers 17136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1997.
"Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-97, June.
- Morris, S & Song Shin, H, 1996. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Economics Papers 126, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2003.
"A Primer on Financial Contagion,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 571-608, 09.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1999.
"Regional Contagion and the Globalization of Securities Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
7153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
- Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud J. Mehl, 2011.
"Global Crises and Equity Market Contagion,"
NBER Working Papers
17121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bekaert, Geert & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Mehl, Arnaud, 2011. "Global crises and equity market contagion," Working Paper Series 1381, European Central Bank.
- Bekaert, Geert & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Mehl, Arnaud, 2011. "Global crises and equity market contagion," CEPR Discussion Papers 8438, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998.
"On crises, contagion, and confusion,"
13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(2), pages 177-97, August.
- Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 388, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1995. "Capital inflows to Latin America with reference to the Asian experience," MPRA Paper 13840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
- Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp863. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Luca Miselli)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Luca Miselli to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.