IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nuf/econwp/0417.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

We Ran One Regression

Author

Listed:
  • David F. Hendry

    () (Department of Economics, University of Oxford)

  • Hans-Martin Krolzig

    (Department of Economics, University of Oxford)

Abstract

The recent controversy over model selection in the context of `growth regressions' has led to some remarkably numerous `estimation' strategies, including 4 million regressions by Sala-i-Martin (1997b). Only one regression is really needed, namely the general unrestricted model, appropriately reduced to a parsimonious encompassing congruent representation. Such an outcome was achieved in one run on PcGets, within 15 minutes of receiving from Professor Ley the data set in Fernández et al (2001). We reproduce that equation, and corroborate the findings in Hoover and Perez (2004), who also adopt an automatic general-to-simple approach.

Suggested Citation

  • David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Economics Papers 2004-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0417
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/papers/2004/w17/OneReg.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
    2. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2004. "Truth and Robustness in Cross‐country Growth Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 765-798, December.
    3. J. R. Hicks, 1940. "A Comment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 64-65.
    4. Phillips, Peter C B, 1996. "Econometric Model Determination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 763-812, July.
    5. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1986. "Professor Hendry's Econometric Methodology," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 283-307, August.
    6. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Automated Forecasts of Asia-Pacific Economic Activity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1103, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2005. "The Properties of Automatic "GETS" Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages 32-61, March.
    8. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576.
    9. Teodosio Perez‐Amaral & Giampiero M. Gallo & Halbert White, 2003. "A Flexible Tool for Model Building: the Relevant Transformation of the Inputs Network Approach (RETINA)," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 821-838, December.
    10. Leamer, Edward E & Leonard, Herman B, 1983. "Reporting the Fragility of Regression Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 306-317, May.
    11. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003. "Laws and Limits of Econometrics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 26-52, March.
    12. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    13. Julia Campos & David F. Hendry & Hans‐Martin Krolzig, 2003. "Consistent Model Selection by an Automatic Gets Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 803-819, December.
    14. Jerzy Mycielski & Michal Kurcewicz, 2004. "A Specification Search Algorithm for Cointegrated Systems," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 321, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Temple, Jonathan, 2000. "Growth Regressions and What the Textbooks Don't Tell You," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 181-205, July.
    16. N. E. Savin, 1980. "The Bonferroni and the Scheffé Multiple Comparison Procedures," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 255-273.
    17. McAleer, Michael & Pagan, Adrian R & Volker, Paul A, 1985. "What Will Take the Con out of Econometrics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 293-307, June.
    18. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    19. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Castle Jennifer L. & Doornik Jurgen A & Hendry David F., 2011. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, February.
    2. Neil R. Ericsson, 2008. "The Fragility of Sensitivity Analysis: An Encompassing Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 895-914, December.
    3. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2011. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-37, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. Melisa Chanegriha & Chris Stewart & Christopher Tsoukis, 2017. "Identifying the robust economic, geographical and political determinants of FDI: an Extreme Bounds Analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 759-776, March.
    5. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2004. "Truth and Robustness in Cross‐country Growth Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 765-798, December.
    7. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 6, pages 1-69.
    8. Harris Dellas & Kevin Hoover, 2003. "Truth and Robustness in Cross-country Growth Regressions," Working Papers 11, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    9. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    10. Søren Johansen & David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2007. "Selecting a Regression Saturated by Indicators," CREATES Research Papers 2007-36, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 235-322.
    12. Eduardo Acosta-González & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, 2007. "Model selection via genetic algorithms illustrated with cross-country growth data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 313-337, September.
    13. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Automated Discovery In Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 3-20, February.
    14. Julia Korosteleva & Colin Lawson, 2010. "The Belarusian case of transition: whither financial repression?," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 33-53.
    15. W. Robert Reed, 2009. "The Determinants Of U.S. State Economic Growth: A Less Extreme Bounds Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 685-700, October.
    16. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga, 2013. "Comparing variable selection techniques for linear regression: LASSO and Autometrics," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13080, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    17. Peter Sandholt Jensen & Allan H. Würtz, 2006. "On determining the importance of a regressor with small and undersized samples," Economics Working Papers 2006-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. Rockey, James & Temple, Jonathan, 2016. "Growth econometrics for agnostics and true believers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 86-102.
    19. Yongfu Huang, 2005. "What determines financial development?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 05/580, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    20. Bruns, Stephan B. & Ioannidis, John P.A., 2020. "Determinants of economic growth: Different time different answer?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0417. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maxine Collett). General contact details of provider: https://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/economics/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.