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Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models

Author

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  • Jennifer Castle
  • David Hendry

Abstract

Our strategy for automatic selection in potentially non-linear processes is: test for non-linearity in the unrestricted linear formulation; if that test rejects, specify a general model using polynomials, to be simplified to a minimal congruent representation; finally select by encompassing tests of specific non-linear forms against the selected model. Non-linearity poses many problems: extreme observations leading to non-normal (fat-tailed) distributions; collinearity between non-linear functions; usually more variables than observations when approximating the non-linearity; and excess retention of irrelevant variables; but solutions are proposed. A returns-to-education empirical application demonstrates the feasiblity of the non-linear automatic model selection algorithm Autometrics.

Suggested Citation

  • Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models," Economics Series Working Papers 473, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:473
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    File URL: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/materials/papers/4216/paper473.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Bårdsen Gunnar & Hurn Stanley & McHugh Zöe, 2012. "Asymmetric Unemployment Rate Dynamics in Australia," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, January.
    3. Castle Jennifer L. & Doornik Jurgen A & Hendry David F., 2011. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, February.
    4. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2009. "The long-run determinants of UK wages, 1860-2004," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 5-28, March.
    5. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2013. "Anthropogenic influences on atmospheric CO2," Chapters,in: Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 12, pages 287-326 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2013. "Model Selection in Equations with Many ‘Small’ Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 6-22, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric methodology; Model selection; Autometrics; Non-linearity; Outlier; Returns to education;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software

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