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A Low-Dimension Portmanteau Test for Non-linearity

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Listed author(s):
  • Jennifer Castle
  • David Hendry

Abstract

A new test for non-linearity in the conditional mean is proposed using functions of the principal components of regressors. The test extends the non-linearity tests based on Kolmogorov-Gavor polynomials (Thursby and Schmidt, 1977, Tsay, 1986, and Terasvirta, Lin and Granger, 1993), but circumvents problems of high dimensionality, is equivariant to collinearity, and includes exponential functions, so is a portmanteau test with power against a wide range of possible alternatives. A Monte Carlo analysis compared the performance of the test to the optimal infeasible test and to alternative tests. The relative performance of the test is encouraging: the test has the appropriate size and has high power in many situations.

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Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 471.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2010
Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:471
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Keywords: Functional form; Portmanteau test; Non-linearity; Principal components; Collinearity;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
  • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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Cited by:

  1. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2016. "Non-linear exchange rate relationships: An automated model selection approach with indicator saturation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 84-109.
  2. Frank Asche, Atle Oglend, and Petter Osmundsen, 2017. "Modeling UK Natural Gas Prices when Gas Prices Periodically Decouple from the Oil Price," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
  3. Barry Harrison & Winston Moore, 2012. "Stock Market Efficiency, Non-Linearity, Thin Trading and Asymmetric Information in MENA Stock Markets," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 17(1), pages 77-93, March.
  4. Francisco Salas-Molina & Juan A. Rodr\'iguez-Aguilar & Joan Serr\`a & Montserrat Guillen & Francisco J. Martin, 2016. "Empirical analysis of daily cash flow time series and its implications for forecasting," Papers 1611.04941, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
  5. David F. Hendry, 2011. "Empirical Economic Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation," Rationality, Markets and Morals, Frankfurt School Verlag, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, vol. 2(46), October.
  6. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  7. Anne Péguin-Feissolle & Bilel Sanhaji, 2015. "Testing the Constancy of Conditional Correlations in Multivariate GARCH-type Models (Extended Version with Appendix)," AMSE Working Papers 1516, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France.
  8. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2015. "TIPS and the VIX: Non-linear Spillovers from Financial Panic to Breakeven Inflation," Working Papers 1502, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
  9. Castle Jennifer L. & Doornik Jurgen A & Hendry David F., 2011. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, February.
  10. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2014. "Statistical Model Selection with 'Big Data'," Economics Series Working Papers 735, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  11. Anders Bredahl Kock & Timo Teräsvirta, 2010. "Forecasting with nonlinear time series models," CREATES Research Papers 2010-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  12. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "Automatic Selection for Non-linear Models," Economics Series Working Papers 473, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  13. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2013. "Model Selection in Equations with Many ‘Small’ Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 6-22, 02.
  14. Shahid IQBAL & Maqbool H. SIAL, 2016. "Projections of Inflation Dynamics for Pakistan: GMDH Approach," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 536-559, September.
  15. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the Teaching of Econometrics," Economics Series Working Papers 785, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  16. Ericsson Neil R., 2016. "Testing for and estimating structural breaks and other nonlinearities in a dynamic monetary sector," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 377-398, September.

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