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Testing for and estimating structural breaks and other nonlinearities in a dynamic monetary sector

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  • Ericsson Neil R.

    (Principal Economist, Division of International Finance, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Stop K1-02, 2000 C Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20551, USA)

Abstract

Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz constructed an important macroeconomic dataset for the United Kingdom that spans 1878–1970. Numerous authors have modeled the demand for broad money on that dataset. Model selection is central to assessing the merits of the resulting empirical models, so the current paper re-evaluates that issue with computer-automated model selection. Some models are robust to the model selection path, as characterized through variations in target size, pre-search testing, fixity of regressors, impulse indicator saturation, representation of the general model, and choice of dependent variable. Model improvement is also feasible, with historically interpretable nonlinearities and structural breaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ericsson Neil R., 2016. "Testing for and estimating structural breaks and other nonlinearities in a dynamic monetary sector," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 377-398, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:20:y:2016:i:4:p:377-398:n:6
    DOI: 10.1515/snde-2015-0104
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Autometrics; broad money; cointegration; conditional models; dynamic specification; error correction; Friedman and Schwartz; model design; model selection; money demand; nonlinearities; structural breaks; United Kingdom;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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