Using Model Selection Algorithms To Obtain Reliable Coefficient Estimates
This review surveys a number of common Model Selection Algorithms (MSAs), discusses how they relate to each other, and identifies factors that explain their relative performances. At the heart of MSA performance is the trade-off between Type I and Type II errors. Some relevant variables will be mistakenly excluded, and some irrelevant variables will be retained by chance. A successful MSA will find the optimal trade-off between the two types of errors for a given data environment. Whether a given MSA will be successful in a given environment depends on the relative costs of these two types of errors. We use Monte Carlo experimentation to illustrate these issues. We confirm that no MSA does best in all circumstances. Even the worst MSA in terms of overall performance – the strategy of including all candidate variables – sometimes performs best (viz., when all candidate variables are relevant). We also show how (i) the ratio of relevant to total candidate variables and (ii) DGP noise affect relative MSA performance. Finally, we discuss a number of issues complicating the task of MSAs in producing reliable coefficient estimates.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 27 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0950-0804 |
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0950-0804|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2010.
"Evaluating Automatic Model Selection,"
Economics Series Working Papers
474, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005.
"Automated Discovery In Econometrics,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 3-20, February.
- Hannes Leeb & Benedikt M. Poetscher, 2000.
"The Finite-Sample Distribution of Post-Model-Selection Estimators, and Uniform Versus Non-Uniform Approximations,"
- Leeb, Hannes & P tscher, Benedikt M., 2003. "The Finite-Sample Distribution Of Post-Model-Selection Estimators And Uniform Versus Nonuniform Approximations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(01), pages 100-142, February.
- Jacobson, Tor & Karlsson, Sune, 2002.
"Finding Good Predictors for Inflation: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach,"
Working Paper Series
138, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Sune Karlsson & Tor Jacobson, 2004. "Finding good predictors for inflation: a Bayesian model averaging approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(7), pages 479-496.
- McAleer, Michael & Pagan, Adrian, 1985.
"What Will Take the Con Out of Econometrics?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
39, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:27:y:2013:i:2:p:269-296. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.