General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures for Structural Vector Autoregressions
Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models have emerged as a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics, but suffer from the large number of parameters employed and the resulting estimation uncertainty associated with their impulse responses. In this paper, we propose general-to-specific ("Gets") model selection procedures to overcome these limitations. It is shown that single-equation procedures are generally efficient for the reduction of recursive SVAR models. The small-sample properties of the proposed reduction procedure (as implemented using "PcGets") are evaluated in a realistic Monte Carlo experiment. The impulse responses generated by the selected SVAR are found to be more precise and accurate than those of the unrestricted VAR. The proposed reduction strategy is then applied to the US monetary system considered by Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans ("Review of Economics and Statistics", Vol. 78, pp. 16-34, 1996) . The results are consistent with the Monte Carlo and question the validity of the impulse responses generated by the full system. Copyright 2003 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 65 (2003)
Issue (Month): s1 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ|
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0305-9049
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0305-9049|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kevin Hoover & Selva Demiralp, 2003.
"Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression,"
33, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Kevin Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2003.
"Data Mining Reconsidered: Encompassing And The General-To-Specific Approach To Specification Search,"
9727, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
- Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, . "Data Mining Reconsidered: Encompassing And The General-To-Specific Approach To Specification Search," Department of Economics 97-27, California Davis - Department of Economics.
- Sims, Christopher A., 1992.
"Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Ben Bernanke, 1990.
"The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission,"
NBER Working Papers
3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Reformulating empirical macro-econometric modelling," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0104, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- Hendry, David F & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003.
"The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling,"
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003
105, Royal Economic Society.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "General--to--Specific Reductions of Vector Autoregressive Processes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 164, Society for Computational Economics.
- Swanson, N.R. & Granger, C.W.J., 1994. "Impulse Response Functions Based on Causal Approach to Residual Orthogonalization in Vector Autoregressions," Papers 9-94-1, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994.
"The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the flow of funds,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
- Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the Flow of Funds," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Ralf BRUEGGEMANN & Hans-Martin KROLZIG & Helmut LUETKEPOHL, 2002.
"Comparison of Model Reduction Methods for VAR Processes,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2002/19, European University Institute.
- Brüggemann, Ralf & Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2002. "Comparison of model reduction methods for VAR processes," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,80, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Ralf Brüggemann & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2003. "Comparison of Model Reduction Methods for VAR Processes," Economics Papers 2003-W13, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,"
NBER Working Papers
2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
- Omtzigt Pieter, 2002. "Automatic identification and restriction of the cointegration space," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0213, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
- Hendry, David F, 1980. "Econometrics-Alchemy or Science?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 387-406, November.
- Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Peter Flaschel, 2003. "Wage and Price Phillips Curves," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 128, Royal Economic Society.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:65:y:2003:i:s1:p:769-801. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.