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Chinese Saving Dynamics: The Impact of GDP Growth and the Dependent Share

Author

Listed:
  • Carl Bonham

    (University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics
    University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO))

  • Call Wiemer

    (University of California, Los Angeles, Center for Chinese Studies)

Abstract

China’s national saving rate rose rapidly in the 2000s after declining through the late 1990s. These dynamics are not explained by precautionary motives, the institutional distribution of income, or reform related processes in general. Rather, we find a compelling explanation lies with GDP growth fluctuations and movement in the dependent share in population. We estimate a vector autoregressive model for the period 1978-2008, then generate in-sample simulations that successfully replicate the 2000s runup in the saving rate. Our out of sample forecasts show the saving rate dropping in the 2010s as the dependency share falls and GDP growth moderates.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Bonham & Call Wiemer, 2010. "Chinese Saving Dynamics: The Impact of GDP Growth and the Dependent Share," Working Papers 201019, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:201019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The Real Reason for China's Unbalanced Growth (Orlik Review Addendum)
      by calla.wiemer@acaes.us (Calla Wiemer) in Asia Economics Blog on 2020-07-15 13:27:11

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Xinhua Gu & Bihong Huang & Pui Sun Tam & Yang Zhang, 2015. "Inequality and Saving: Further Evidence from Integrated Economies," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 15-30, February.
    2. Hassan Belkacem Ghassan & Hassan Rafdan Al-Hajhoj & Faruk Balli, 2019. "Bi-Demographic Changes and Current Account using SVAR Modeling: Evidence from Saudi Economy," Working Papers hal-01742574, HAL.
    3. Gu, Xinhua & Tam, Pui Sun & Li, Guoqiang & Zhao, Qingbin, 2020. "An alternative explanation for high saving in China: Rising inequality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1082-1094.
    4. Chang, Xiao & An, Tongliang & Tam, Pui Sun & Gu, Xinhua, 2020. "National savings rate and sectoral income distribution: An empirical look at China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    5. Hassan B. Ghassan & Hassan R. Alhajhoj & Faruk Balli, 2022. "Bi-demographic and current account dynamics using SVAR model: evidence from Saudi Arabia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1327-1363, August.
    6. Tingying Chen & Haitian Lu & Rong Chen & Lina Wu, 2021. "The Impact of Marketization on Sustainable Economic Growth—Evidence from West China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-24, March.
    7. Alhaj-Yaseen, Yaseen S. & Barkoulas, John T. & Ouandlous, Arav, 2020. "Liberalization and asymmetric information flow dynamics in the Chinese equity markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    8. Gu, Xinhua & Tam, Pui Sun, 2013. "The saving–growth–inequality triangle in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 850-857.
    9. Hassan B. Ghassan & Hassan R. Al-Hajhoj & Faruk Balli, 2018. "Bi-Demographic Changes and Current Account using SVAR Modeling," Papers 1803.11161, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    10. Mark S. Manger & J. Scott Matthews, 2021. "Knowing When to Splurge: Precautionary Saving and Chinese-Canadians," Papers 2108.00519, arXiv.org.
    11. Ghassan, Hassan & Alhajhoj, Hassan R. & Balli, Faruk, 2018. "Bi-Demographic Changes and Current Account using SVAR Modeling: Evidence from Saudi Arabia," MPRA Paper 93013, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Feb 2019.
    12. Manger, Mark S. & Matthews, J. Scott, 2021. "Knowing when to splurge: Precautionary saving and Chinese-Canadians," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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