IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

China’s evolving external wealth and rising creditor position

  • Guonan Ma
  • Zhou Haiwen

China’s emergence as a major player in world trade is well known, but its rising role in global finance is perhaps underappreciated. China is the second largest creditor in the world today, with a net creditor position of exceeding 30% of GDP in 2007. In this paper, we test the importance of growth differential, demographics, government debt, financial depth and the exchange rate in shaping China’s net foreign asset position. Our findings highlight the sharp fall in youth dependency as one key driver behind China’s puzzlingly large net lender position and also confirm the neoclassical prediction that faster growth attracts more capital inflows. Looking ahead, our findings also suggest that China is unlikely to turn into a meaningful net debtor nation over the next two decades. Moreover, we project that, as China engages in increased cross-border asset trade, its gross foreign assets and liabilities could triple in 10 years. While adjustments in China’s net foreign asset position are expected to be gradual and may thus facilitate its capital account opening, increasing exposure to external shocks and growing interactions with the rest of the world may present challenges both to China and to the global financial system.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work286.pdf
File Function: Full PDF document
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work286.htm
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 286.

as
in new window

Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:286
Contact details of provider: Postal: Centralbahnplatz 2, CH - 4002 Basel
Phone: (41) 61 - 280 80 80
Fax: (41) 61 - 280 91 00
Web page: http://www.bis.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Erik Lueth, 2008. "Capital Flows and Demographics; An Asian Perspective," IMF Working Papers 08/8, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2006. "The Global Macroeconomic Consequences of a Demographic Transition," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 92-134, January.
  3. Guonan Ma & RobertN McCauley, 2008. "Efficacy Of China'S Capital Controls: Evidence From Price And Flow Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 104-123, 02.
  4. Modigliani, Franco, 1986. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 297-313, June.
  5. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," CEG Working Papers 20012, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  6. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2007. "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalance," 2007 Meeting Papers 746, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research.
  8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2007. "The overvaluation of Renminbi undervaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 762-785, September.
  9. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," Working Papers 142009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  10. Olivier Jeanne & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2005. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: the Allocation Puzzle," 2005 Meeting Papers 240, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Marcos D. Chamon & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 93-130, January.
  12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
  13. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-96, December.
  14. Robert N. McCauley & Eric Chan, 2009. "Hong Kong and Shanghai: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 18, pages 13-37 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Hamid Faruqee & Guy Debelle, 1996. "What Determines the Current Account? a Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach," IMF Working Papers 96/58, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Takatoshi Ito & Andrew K. Rose, 2009. "Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 18," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_07-2, May.
  17. Menzie David Chinn & Eswar Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries; An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 00/46, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Xiujian Peng, 2008. "Demographic Shift, Population Ageing And Economic Growth In China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 680-697, December.
  19. Soyoung Kim & Jong-Wha Lee, 2007. "Demographic Changes, Saving, and Current Account in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 6(2), pages 22-53, May.
  20. Lane, Philip R. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2007. "The international financial integration of China and India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4132, The World Bank.
  21. Eswar Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2006. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for economic development," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 119-158.
  22. L. Alan Winters & Shahid Yusuf, 2007. "Dancing with the Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6632, 6.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Beslmeisl)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.