IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkm/wpaper/092012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How would Capital Account Liberalisation Affect China's Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates?

Author

Listed:
  • Dong He

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

  • Lillian Cheung

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Wenlang Zhang

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Tommy Wu

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

In this paper we study the determinants of gross capital flows, project the size of China's international investment positions in 2020 and analyse the implications for the renminbi real exchange rates. We assume in this exercise that the renminbi will have largely achieved capital account convertibility by the end of this decade, a timetable consistent with recent proposals by the People's Bank of China. Our analysis shows that China's gross international investment positions would grow significantly, and inflows and outflows would become much more balanced. The private sector would turn its net liability position into a balanced position, and the official sector would reduce its net asset position significantly, relative to the country¡¦s GDP. Because of the increasing importance of private sector foreign claims and the decreasing importance of official foreign reserves, China would be able to earn higher net investment incomes from abroad. Overall, China would continue to be a net creditor, with the net foreign asset position as a share of GDP remaining largely stable through this decade. These findings suggest that the renminbi real exchange rate would not be particularly sensitive to capital account liberalisation as capital flows are expected to be two-sided. The renminbi real exchange rate would likely be on a path of moderate appreciation as China is expected to maintain a sizeable growth differential with its trading partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong He & Lillian Cheung & Wenlang Zhang & Tommy Wu, 2012. "How would Capital Account Liberalisation Affect China's Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 092012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:092012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/17/ub_full_0_2_316_wp-no-09_2012-final-.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
    2. Davide Furceri & Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2012. "Medium-Term Determinants Of International Investment Positions: The Role Of Structural Policies," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-32.
    3. Fernando Broner & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "Why are capital flows so much more volatile in emerging than in developed countries?," Economics Working Papers 862, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    4. Jaume Ventura & Fernando Broner, 2008. "Rethinking the effects of financial liberalization," 2008 Meeting Papers 747, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799, Elsevier.
    6. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "International Financial Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp03, IIIS.
    7. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, November.
    8. Lamin Y Leigh & Steven V Dunaway & Xiangming Li, 2006. "How Robust are Estimates of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates; The Case of China," IMF Working Papers 06/220, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2007. "Capital Flows in a Globalized World: The Role of Policies and Institutions," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 19-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    11. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
    12. Bernd Schnatz, 2011. "Global Imbalances And The Pretence Of Knowing Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 604-615, December.
    13. Jiangyan Yu & James P Walsh, 2010. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment; A Sectoral and Institutional Approach," IMF Working Papers 10/187, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Shucheng Liu & Zhijun Zhao & Yue Ma & Matthew S. Yiu & Yak-yeow Kueh & Shu-ki Tsang, 2002. "The Full Convertibility of Renminbi: Sequencing and Influence," Working Papers 092002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    15. Carmen Broto & Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez, 2008. "The Sources of Capital Flows Volatility: Empirical Evidence for Emerging Countries," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 93-128, January-J.
    16. Kosuke Aoki & Gianluca Benigno & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2009. "Capital Flows and Asset Prices," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 175-216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Faria, Andr & Mauro, Paolo, 2009. "Institutions and the external capital structure of countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 367-391, April.
    18. Guonan Ma & Zhou Haiwen, 2009. "China’s evolving external wealth and rising creditor position," BIS Working Papers 286, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
    20. Lane, Philip R., 2000. "International investment positions: a cross-sectional analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 513-534, August.
    21. Xiujian Peng, 2008. "Demographic Shift, Population Ageing And Economic Growth In China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 680-697, December.
    22. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," CESifo Working Paper Series 2587, CESifo.
    23. Laura CASI & Laura RESMINI, 2010. "Evidence on the determinants of foreign direct investment: the case of EU regions," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 1, pages 93-118, December.
    24. Fernando Broner & Jaume Ventura, 2016. "Rethinking the Effects of Financial Globalization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(3), pages 1497-1542.
    25. Edsel L. Beja, Jr., 2006. "Revisiting the Revolving Door: Capital Flight from Southeast Asia," Working Papers 16, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    26. Yanping Chong & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "The Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates And Their Long‐Run Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 609-634, May.
    27. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "Long-run determinants of the Irish real exchange rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 549-553.
    28. Genius, Margarita & Tzouvelekas, Vangelis, 2008. "The Balassa-Samuelson Productivity Bias Hypothesis: Further Evidence Using Panel Data," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 9(2).
    29. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "International Financial Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp03, IIIS.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. He, Dong & Luk, Paul, 2017. "A Model Of Chinese Capital Account Liberalization," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(8), pages 1902-1934, December.
    2. Rod Tyers, 2016. "China and Global Macroeconomic Interdependence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(11), pages 1674-1702, November.
    3. Wenjie Chen & Heiwai Tang, 2014. "The Dragon Is Flying West: Micro-level Evidence of Chinese Outward Direct Investment," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 31(2), pages 109-140, September.
    4. Sarah Chan, 2019. "China’s Narrowing Current Account Surplus: Evolving Trends and Policy Implications," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 3, pages 345-359, September.
    5. Alfred Schipke, 2016. "Capital Account Liberalisation and China's Effect on Global Capital Flows," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Rod Tyers, 2015. "Financial integration and China's global impact," CAMA Working Papers 2015-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 28(2), pages 1-32, November.
    8. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2018. "Fertility and savings contractions in China: Long‐run global implications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(11), pages 3194-3220, November.
    9. Paul De Grauwe & Zhaoyong Zhang & Rod Tyers, 2016. "Slower Growth and Vulnerability to Recession: Updating China's Global Impact," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(1), pages 66-88, February.
    10. Yin-Wong Cheung & Risto Herrala, 2014. "China's Capital Controls: Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 112-134, February.
    11. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2019. "Financial Integration and the Global Effects of China's Growth Surge," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 19-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    12. Yiping Huang & Bijun Wang, 2013. "Investing Overseas Without Moving Factories Abroad: The Case of Chinese Outward Direct Investment," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 30(1), pages 85-107, March.
    13. Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2014. "Financial openness of China and India- Implications for capital account liberalisation," Working Papers 827, Bruegel.
    14. Isha Agarwal & Grace Weishi Gu & Eswar S. Prasad, 2019. "China’s Impact on Global Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 26311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Joseph P. Joyce, 2018. "External balance sheets as countercyclical crisis buffers," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 305-329, April.
    16. Tyers, Rod, 2015. "International effects of China's rise and transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-19.
    17. Dongzhou Mei & Ting Ji & Liutang Gong, 2020. "Would Currency Appreciation Reduce the Trade Surplus?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 21(1), pages 85-110, May.
    18. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Short Run Effects of The Economic Reform Agenda," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 14-16, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    19. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2016. "Contractions in Chinese Fertility and Savings: Long-run Domestic and Global Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    20. Isha Agarwal & Grace Weishi Gu & Eswar Prasad, 0. "The Determinants of China’s International Portfolio Equity Allocations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-50.
    21. Li, Jian & Strange, Roger & Ning, Lutao & Sutherland, Dylan, 2016. "Outward foreign direct investment and domestic innovation performance: Evidence from China," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1010-1019.
    22. Huang, Yiping & Ji, Yang, 2017. "How will financial liberalization change the Chinese economy? Lessons from middle-income countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 27-45.
    23. Isha Agarwal & Grace Weishi Gu & Eswar Prasad, 2020. "The Determinants of China’s International Portfolio Equity Allocations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 643-692, September.
    24. Vipin Arora & Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Reconstructing the Savings Glut: The Global Implications of Asian Excess Saving," CAMA Working Papers 2014-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    25. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "United Kingdom; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 14/234, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    2. Binici, Mahir & Hutchison, Michael & Schindler, Martin, 2010. "Controlling capital? Legal restrictions and the asset composition of international financial flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 666-684, June.
    3. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard, 2011. "Economic Policies and FDI Inflows to Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 11/192, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Philip R. Lane, 2003. "The Macroeconomics of International Financial Trade," Trinity Economics Papers 200314, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    5. Ibrahim D. Raheem & Sara le Roux & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "The Role of Asymmetry and Uncertainties in the Capital Flows- Economic Growth Nexus," Research Africa Network Working Papers 19/047, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    6. Coeurdacier, Nicolas, 2009. "Do trade costs in goods market lead to home bias in equities?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 86-100, February.
    7. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2006. "Neither a borrower nor a lender: Does China's zero net foreign asset position make economic sense?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 943-971, July.
    8. Christopher M. Meissner & Alan M. Taylor, 2006. "Losing our marbles in the new century?: the great rebalancing in historical perspective," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 51.
    9. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, November.
    10. Förster, Marcel & Jorra, Markus & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "The dynamics of international capital flows: Results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 101-124.
    11. Philip Lane, 2007. "The Swedish external position and the krona," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 263-279, November.
    12. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2018. "Multilateral Trade Liberalisation and Financial Openness," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 325-338, October.
    13. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2002. "External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1049-1071, June.
    14. Melisso Boschi, 2012. "Long- and short-run determinants of capital flows to Latin America: a long-run structural GVAR model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1041-1071, December.
    15. Gnangnon, Sena Kimm, 2019. "Trade Policy Space and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows," EconStor Preprints 196149, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    16. Habib, Maurizio Michael, 2010. "Excess returns on net foreign assets: the exorbitant privilege from a global perspective," Working Paper Series 1158, European Central Bank.
    17. Hoffmann, Mathias & Tillmann, Peter, 2012. "International financial integration and national price levels: The role of the exchange rate regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1503-1528.
    18. César A. Calderón, 2004. "Real exchange rates in the long and short run: a panel co-integration approach," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(2), pages 41-83, December.
    19. KAFANDO, Namalguebzanga, 2014. "L'industrialisation de l'Afrique: l'importance des facteurs structurels et du régime de change [The industrialization of Africa: the importance of structural factors and exchange rate regime]," MPRA Paper 68736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sager, Michael, 2009. "Productivity shocks and real exchange rate: a reappraisal," Working Paper Series 1046, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital Account Liberalisation; Net Foreign Asset Position; Exchange Rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:092012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (HKIMR). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/hkimrhk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.