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Exchange Rate Economics

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  • John Williamson

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Abstract

The paper summarizes the current theory of how a floating exchange rate is determined, dividing the subject into what determines the steady state and what determines the transition to steady state. The inadequacies of this model are examined, and an alternative “behavioral” model, which recognizes that the foreign exchange market is populated by both fundamentalists and chartists is presented. It is argued that the main importance of understanding the foreign exchange market for development strategy is to permit a correct appraisal of the dangers of Dutch disease. Empirically it seems that from the standpoint of promoting development it is preferable to have a mildly undervalued rate. The paper concludes by examining implications for exchange rate regimes.
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Suggested Citation

  • John Williamson, 2009. "Exchange Rate Economics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 123-146, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:123-146 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-008-9091-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521466004, December.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    3. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 647-668.
    4. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2004. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 153-230.
    6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier.
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    8. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, August.
    9. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    10. John Williamson, 2007. "Reference Rates and the International Monetary System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa82.
    11. Alvaro Aguirre & César Calderón, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Economic Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 316, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
    13. Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January.
    14. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2008. "Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 837-866, August.
    15. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
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    17. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    18. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Pascale Duran-Vigneron & Amina Lahrèche-Revil & Mignon, Valerie, 2004. "Burden Sharing and Exchange-Rate Misalignments within the Group of Twenty," Working Papers 2004-13, CEPII research center.
    19. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1990. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 16.
    20. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521460477, December.
    21. Williamson, J., 1991. "Advice on the Choice of an Exchange-Rate Policy," Papers 3, United Nations World Employment Programme-.
    22. Guy M Meredith, 2007. "Debt Dynamics and Global Imbalances; Some Conventional Views Reconsidered," IMF Working Papers 07/4, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Constantinos Alexiou & Joseph G. Nellis, 2013. "Challenging the Raison d’etre of Internal Devaluation in the Context of the Greek Economy," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 813-836, December.
    2. Robert A. Blecker & Arslan Razmi, 2010. "Export-led Growth, Real Exchange Rates and the Fallacy of Composition," Chapters,in: Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 19 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Aleh Mazol, 2015. "Exchange Rate, Imports of Intermediate and Capital Goods and GDP Growth in Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 32, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    4. Tasadduq Imam & Kevin Tickle & Abdullahi Ahmed & William Guo, 2012. "Linear Relationship Between The Aud/Usd Exchange Rate And The Respective Stock Market Indices: A Computational Finance Perspective," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 19-42, January.
    5. Tsen, Wong Hock, 2011. "The real exchange rate determination: An empirical investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 800-811, October.
    6. Oliver Hossfeld, 2010. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rates and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Time Series vs. Panel Estimates," Working Papers 2010.3, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    7. repec:lje:journl:v:22:y:2017:i:sp:p:73-110 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Medel, Carlos & Camilleri, Gilmour & Hsu, Hsiang-Ling & Kania, Stefan & Touloumtzoglou, Miltiadis, 2015. "Robustness in Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting Models: Economics-based Modelling After the Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 65290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Melvin, Michael & Prins, John & Shand, Duncan, 2013. "Forecasting Exchange Rates: an Investor Perspective," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    10. James Dzansi, 2013. "Do remittance inflows promote manufacturing growth?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, pages 89-111.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Behavioral model; Dutch disease; F31; F43; O24;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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