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Is the Chinese Growth Miracle Built to Last?

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  • Prasad, Eswar

    () (Cornell University)

Abstract

Is the Chinese growth miracle – a remarkably high growth rate sustained for over two decades – likely to persist or are the seeds of its eventual demise contained in the policies that have boosted growth? For all its presumed flaws, the particular approach to macroeconomic and structural policies that has been adopted by the Chinese government has helped to deliver high productivity and output growth, along with a reasonable degree of macroeconomic stability. In tandem with a benign international environment, this approach makes it unlikely that the economy will face a collapse in growth. But there comes a point when the policy distortions needed to maintain this approach could generate imbalances, impose potentially large welfare costs, and themselves become a source of instability. The traditional risks faced by emerging market economies, especially those related to having an open capital account, do not loom large in the case of China. In the process of securing protection against external risks, however, Chinese policymakers may have increased the risks of internal instability. There are a number of factors that could trigger unfavorable economic dynamics that, even if they don’t rise to the level of a crisis, could have serious adverse repercussions on growth and welfare. The flexibility and potency of macroeconomic tools to deal with such negative shocks is constrained by the panoply of policies that has supported growth so far.

Suggested Citation

  • Prasad, Eswar, 2007. "Is the Chinese Growth Miracle Built to Last?," IZA Discussion Papers 2995, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2995
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    Cited by:

    1. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2010. "Global Rebalancing and the Future of the Sino-US Codependency," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(s1), pages 70-87.
    2. Udichibarna Bose & Ronald McDonald & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2016. "Policy initiatives and Örmsíaccess to external finance: Evidence from a panel of emerging Asian economies," Working Papers 2016_18, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    3. Jawad, Muhammad & Qayyum, Abdul, 2015. "Modelling the Impact of Policy Environment on Inflows of Worker’s Remittances in Pakistan: A Multivariate Analysis," MPRA Paper 85497, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2016. "Globalization and Chinese Growth: Ends of Trends?," Working Paper Series 16-029, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    5. van Treeck, Till. & Sturn, Simon., 2012. "Income inequality as a cause of the Great Recession? : A survey of current debates," ILO Working Papers 994709343402676, International Labour Organization.
    6. Arjan de Haan, 2010. "The Financial Crisis and China’s “Harmonious Societyâ€," Journal of Current Chinese Affairs - China aktuell, Institute of Asian Studies, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, vol. 39(2), pages 69-99.
    7. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2009. "The evolution of the Sino-American Co-dependency: modelling a regime switch in a growth setting," Department of Economics Working Papers 0905, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    8. Dreger, Christian & Zhang, Yanqun, 2014. "Does the economic integration of China affect growth and inflation in industrial countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 184-189.
    9. Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2009. "The difficulties of the Chinese and Indian exchange rate regimes," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 6(1), pages 157-173, June.
    10. Russell Smyth & Ingrid Nielsen & Qingguo Zhai, 2010. "Personal Well-being in Urban China," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 95(2), pages 231-251, January.
    11. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chi-Chuan Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2015. "Globalization, Economic Growth and Institutional Development in China," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 31-63, March.
    12. Nazmi, Nader & Revilla, Julio E., 2008. "Economic Efficiency and Growth: Evidence from Brazil, China, and India," WIDER Working Paper Series 086, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. repec:wsi:rpbfmp:v:13:y:2010:i:02:n:s0219091510001925 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-32.
    15. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2011. "The Chinese Impact on GDP Growth and Inflation in the Industrial Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1151, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Yuqing Xing, 2016. "Global Value Chains and China's Exports to High-income Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 191-203, June.
    17. Udichibarna Bose & Ronald MacDonald & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2014. "Policy initiatives and firms access to external finance: Evidence from a panel of emerging Asian economies," Working Papers 2015_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    18. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Hoarding of international reserves in China: Mercantilism, domestic consumption and US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1044-1078.
    19. Wendy Dobson, 2011. "History Matters: China and Global Governance," Working Papers id:4515, eSocialSciences.
    20. Bose, Udichibarna & MacDonald, Ronald & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2015. "Policy initiatives and firms' access to external finance: Evidence from a panel of emerging Asian economies," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-65, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    21. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2014. "Modeling the Transition Towards Renminbi's Full Convertibility: Implications for China’s Growth," MPRA Paper 54129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2012. "The costs of rebalancing the China-US co-dependency," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 120(1), pages 59-106.
    23. repec:bla:buecrs:v:68:y:2016:i:s1:p:146-170 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Arjan de Haan, 2010. "A defining moment? China's social policy response to the financial crisis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 758-771.
    25. Nader Nazmi & Julio Revilla, 2011. "Brazil’s growth performance: a comparative perspective to the Asian giants," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 7-24, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial sector reforms; capital account liberalization; exchange rate flexibility; macroeconomic policies;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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