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The external and domestic side of macroeconomic adjustment in China

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  • Straub, Roland
  • Thimann, Christian

Abstract

This paper sheds new light on the external and domestic dimension of China's exchange rate policy. It presents an open-economy model to analyse the macroeconomic adjustment process in China under both flexible and fixed exchange rate regimes. The model-based results indicate that persistent current account surpluses in China cannot be rationalized, under general circumstances, by the occurrence of permanent technology or labour supply shocks. As a result, to understand the macroeconomic adjustment process in China it is necessary to mimic the effects of potential inefficiencies, which induce the subdued response of domestic absorption to permanent income shocks, thereby causing the observed positive unconditional correlation of the trade balance and output. The paper argues that these inefficiencies can be potentially seen as a by-product of the fixed exchange rate regime, and can be approximated by a stochastic tax on domestic consumption or a time-varying transaction cost technology related to money holdings. Our results indicate that a fixed exchange rate regime with financial market distortions, as defined above, might induce negative effects on GDP growth in the medium term compared with a more flexible exchange rate regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Straub, Roland & Thimann, Christian, 2010. "The external and domestic side of macroeconomic adjustment in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 425-444, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:21:y:2010:i:5:p:425-444
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    Cited by:

    1. Arslan, Yavuz & Kılınç, Mustafa & Turhan, M. İbrahim, 2015. "Global imbalances, current account rebalancing and exchange rate adjustments," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 324-341.
    2. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Hoarding of international reserves in China: Mercantilism, domestic consumption and US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1044-1078.
    3. Mehrotra, Aaron & Nuutilainen, Riikka & Pääkkönen, Jenni, 2011. "Changing economic structures and impacts of shocks : evidence from a DSGE for China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2011. "Chinese reserves accumulation and US monetary policy: Will China go on buying US financial assets?," Department of Economics Working Papers 1105, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    5. Ettore Dorrucci & Gabor Pula & Daniel Santabárbara, 2013. "China’s economic growth and rebalancing," Occasional Papers 1301, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    6. repec:bla:growch:v:48:y:2017:i:3:p:459-486 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2015. "Housing market dynamics in China: Findings from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 26-40.
    8. Patrick Blagrave & Peter Elliott & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Douglas Hostland & Douglas Laxton & Fan Zhang, 2013. "Adding China to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 13/256, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Yong Ma, 2016. "Policy Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model: Evidence from China," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 25-45, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE modelling China Current account;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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