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Can the chinese trade surplus be reduced through exchange rate policy?

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  • Garcia-Herrero, Alicia
  • Koivu, Tuuli

Abstract

This paper shows empirically that China's trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi, although the size of the surplus is such that exchange rate policy alone will be unable to address the imbalance. One of the main reasons why the reduction in the trade surplus is limited is that Chinese imports are reduced with a real appreciation of the renminbi.By estimating bilateral import equations, we find that it is imports from other Southeast Asian countries which fall.This result reflects the vertical integration of Southeast Asia with China through the 'Asian production network'.We find, in turn, that imports from Germany - which serve China's domestic demand - behave as one would expect, ie they increase with renminbi real appreciation.All in all, our results raise concerns on the impact of renminbi appreciation on Southeast Asia even if regional currencies do not follow the renminbi's upward trajectory. Keywords: China, trade, exports, real exchange rate JEL classification: F1, F14

Suggested Citation

  • Garcia-Herrero, Alicia & Koivu, Tuuli, 2007. "Can the chinese trade surplus be reduced through exchange rate policy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofitp:2007_006
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    File URL: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/123456789/8203/1/128809.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anuradha Dayal-Gulati & Valerie Cerra, 1999. "China's Trade Flows; Changing Price Sensitivies and the Reform Process," IMF Working Papers 99/1, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Tamim Bayoumi & Jaewoo Lee & Sarma Jayanthi, 2006. "New Rates from New Weights," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 1-4.
    3. Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 275-306, December.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
    5. Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2003. "How responsive is Chinese export supply to market signals?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 350-370.
    6. Jaime R. Marquez & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Exchange-rate effects on China's trade: an interim report," Working Paper Series 2006-41, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Jan Voon & Li Guangzhong & Jimmy Ran, 2006. "Does China really lose from RMB revaluation? Evidence from some export industries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1715-1723.
    8. Yue, Changjun & Hua, Ping, 2002. "Does comparative advantage explains export patterns in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 276-296.
    9. Peter Hooper & Karen H. Johnson & Jaime R. Marquez, 1998. "Trade elasticities for G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 609, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Jaime R. Marquez & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Exchange-rate effects on China's trade: an interim report," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, XingWang, 2012. "Are Chinese trade flows different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2127-2146.
    2. Straub, Roland & Thimann, Christian, 2010. "The external and domestic side of macroeconomic adjustment in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 425-444, October.
    3. Soyoung Kim & Yoonbai Kim, 2016. "The RMB Debate: Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Exchange Rate Shocks in China and Japan," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1539-1557, October.
    4. Joong Shik Kang & Wei Liao, 2016. "Chinese Imports; What’s Behind the Slowdown?," IMF Working Papers 16/106, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters,in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 231-271 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Xingwang Qian, 2016. "China–US trade flow behavior: the implications of alternative exchange rate measures and trade classifications," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 43-67, February.
    7. Thorbecke, Willem, 2016. "Understanding Chinese consumption goods imports," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 96-102.
    8. THORBECKE, Willem, 2009. "Can East Asia be an Engine of Growth for the World Economy?," Discussion papers 09006, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Thorbecke, Willem, 2011. "Investigating the effect of exchange rate changes on china's processed exports," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 33-46, June.
    10. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Sun, Chia-Hung, 2010. "The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 705-716, May.
    11. Beretta, Silvio & Iannini, Giuseppe, 2007. "A US-EU Economic Block versus China? How Viable is it? A Note," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 60(4), pages 409-420.
    12. Willem Thorbecke, 2015. "Understanding Japan's Capital Goods Exports," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 536-549, December.
    13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, XingWang, 2014. "The structural behavior of China–US trade flows," BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    14. Gervais, Olivier & Schembri, Lawrence & Suchanek, Lena, 2016. "Current account dynamics, real exchange rate adjustment, and the exchange rate regime in emerging-market economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 86-99.
    15. repec:wsi:rpbfmp:v:16:y:2013:i:01:n:s0219091513500069 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ana Cardoso & António Portugal Duarte, 2015. "The Impact of the Chinese Exchange Policy on Foreign Trade with the European Union," GEMF Working Papers 2015-09, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    17. repec:taf:rjapxx:v:16:y:2011:i:4:p:644-657 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Kozluk, Tomasz & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2008. "The impact of Chinese monetary policy shocks on East Asia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    19. Willem THORBECKE, 2012. "Investigating China's Disaggregated Processed Exports: Evidence that the RMB matters," Discussion papers 12003, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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