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What Kind of Landing for the Chinese Economy?

Author

Listed:
  • Morris Goldstein

    () (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Nicholas R. Lardy

    () (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

Rarely has the outlook for the Chinese economy been so contested. Th e fi nancial press widely quotes three alternative perspectives on the short- and medium-term outlook. One school argues that the Chinese government's recent eff orts to rein in overly rapid growth are working and that the economy is now on a glide path to what is referred to as a soft landing. While "soft landing" is usually not fully defi ned, its chief feature in this case is that Chinese economic growth slows modestly from its current pace of 9 to 10 percent to around 8 percent and that the rate of job creation does not slow enough to constitute a major political challenge for the regime. At the other end of the spectrum is the hard landing school, which argues that the authorities to date have not tightened suffi ciently, that loan and investment growth remain excessive, and that the authorities soon will be forced to take more drastic action that will trigger a sharp correction. Finally, the no landing school argues that China's eff orts to slow growth modestly are misguided since the economy was not overheating in 2003 and early 2004. In this view, China is in the early stages of a secular boom that has several additional years to run.

Suggested Citation

  • Morris Goldstein & Nicholas R. Lardy, 2004. "What Kind of Landing for the Chinese Economy?," Policy Briefs PB04-07, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb04-07
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    Cited by:

    1. Tang, Ya & Xu, Jianguo & Zhang, Xun, 2017. "China's investment and rate of return on capital revisited," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 12-25.
    2. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xin-Hua, 2006. "How much does investment drive economic growth in China?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 751-774, October.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld, 2007. "The Renminbi fs Dollar Peg at the Crossroads," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(S1), pages 29-56, December.
    4. Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2009. "A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China," Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Lindbeck, Assar, 2006. "Economic-Social Interaction during China’s Transition," Working Paper Series 680, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    6. Prasad, Eswar S., 2009. "Is the Chinese growth miracle built to last?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 103-123, March.
    7. Qin, Duo & Song, Haiyan, 2009. "Sources of investment inefficiency: The case of fixed-asset investment in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 94-105, September.
    8. Morris Goldstein & Nicholas R. Lardy, 2005. "China's Role in the Revived Bretton Woods System: A Case of Mistaken Identity," Working Paper Series WP05-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    9. Nouriel Roubini, 2006. "The BW 2 regime: an unstable disequilibrium bound to unravel," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 303-332, December.
    10. World Bank, 2006. "Foreign Capital Utilization in China : Prospects and Future Strategy," World Bank Other Operational Studies 19623, The World Bank.
    11. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 331-336, May.
    12. Lee Branstetter & C. Fritz Foley, 2007. "Facts and Fallacies about U.S. FDI in China," NBER Working Papers 13470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2006. "The Renminbi’s Dollar Peg at the Crossroads," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt7tw4142j, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    14. Zhao, Xingrong & Zhang, Xi & Shao, Shuai, 2016. "Decoupling CO2 emissions and industrial growth in China over 1993–2013: The role of investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 275-292.

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