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Modeling sustainable long-term electricity supply–demand in Africa


  • Nadia S. Ouedraogo


This paper develops a scenario-based model to identify and provide an array of electricity demand in Africa, and to derive them from the African power system of development. A system-based approach is performed by applying the scenario methodology developed by Schwartz in the context of the energy-economic modeling platform ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’. Four scenarios are investigated. The Business as Usual scenario replicates the regional and national master plans. The renewable promotion scenario increases the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix. The demand- and supply-side efficiency scenarios investigate the impact of energy efficiency measures on the power system. The results show an increase in electricity demand by 4 per cent by 2040, supply shortages, and high emissions of greenhouse gases. Contrary to expectations, the renewable energy scenario did not emerge as the best solution to a sustainable electrification of the region. The energy efficiency scenarios have allowed us to draw a sustainable pathway for electrification.

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  • Nadia S. Ouedraogo, 2017. "Modeling sustainable long-term electricity supply–demand in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 023, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2017-23

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    Cited by:

    1. Trotter, Philipp A. & Maconachie, Roy & McManus, Marcelle C., 2018. "Solar energy's potential to mitigate political risks: The case of an optimised Africa-wide network," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 108-126.
    2. Nieves, J.A. & Aristizábal, A.J. & Dyner, I. & Báez, O. & Ospina, D.H., 2019. "Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-397.
    3. Ouedraogo, Nadia S., 2017. "Africa energy future: Alternative scenarios and their implications for sustainable development strategies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 457-471.
    4. Ivan Darma Wangsa & Tao Ming Yang & Hui Ming Wee, 2018. "The Effect of Price-Dependent Demand on the Sustainable Electrical Energy Supply Chain," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, June.
    5. Xinyu Han & Rongrong Li, 2019. "Comparison of Forecasting Energy Consumption in East Africa Using the MGM, NMGM, MGM-ARIMA, and NMGM-ARIMA Model," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(17), pages 1-24, August.
    6. Paul Bertheau & Ayobami Solomon Oyewo & Catherina Cader & Christian Breyer & Philipp Blechinger, 2017. "Visualizing National Electrification Scenarios for Sub-Saharan African Countries," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, November.
    7. Ramchandra Bhandari & Surendra Pandit, 2018. "Electricity as a Cooking Means in Nepal—A Modelling Tool Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(8), pages 1-17, August.
    8. Adeoye, Omotola & Spataru, Catalina, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting hourly electricity demand in West African countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 311-333.
    9. Riva, Fabio & Gardumi, Francesco & Tognollo, Annalisa & Colombo, Emanuela, 2019. "Soft-linking energy demand and optimisation models for local long-term electricity planning: An application to rural India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 32-46.
    10. Martín-Gamboa, Mario & Iribarren, Diego & García-Gusano, Diego & Dufour, Javier, 2019. "Enhanced prioritisation of prospective scenarios for power generation in Spain: How and which one?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 369-379.
    11. Umakanta Mishra & Jei-Zheng Wu & Anthony Shun Fung Chiu, 2019. "Effects of Carbon-Emission and Setup Cost Reduction in a Sustainable Electrical Energy Supply Chain Inventory System," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, March.
    12. Elsner, Paul, 2019. "Continental-scale assessment of the African offshore wind energy potential: Spatial analysis of an under-appreciated renewable energy resource," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 394-407.
    13. Mounir, Adil & Mascaro, Giuseppe & White, Dave D., 2019. "A metropolitan scale analysis of the impacts of future electricity mix alternatives on the water-energy nexus," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    14. Prasad, Ravita D. & Raturi, Atul, 2019. "Low carbon alternatives and their implications for Fiji's electricity sector," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-19.
    15. Nadia S. Ouedraogo, 2017. "Energy futures modelling for African countries: LEAP model application," WIDER Working Paper Series 056, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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