How Much Does Investment Drive Economic Growth in China?
Investment-driven growth has long been regarded as a key development strategy in China. This paper investigates empirically the validity of this view. Post-1990 data analyses and macroeconometric model simulations show that market demand has become a regular force in driving investment since reforms, that non-demand-driven investment growth contributes to increasing capital-output ratio far more than output growth, that government investment exerts a pivotal role in amplifying investment cycles, albeit effective in promoting employment, and that delayed and rising consumption from current investment surge can help sustain the impact of growth even with constant-returns-to-scale in the long-run GDP.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: London E1 4NS|
Phone: +44 (0) 20 7882 5096
Fax: +44 (0) 20 8983 3580
Web page: http://www.econ.qmul.ac.uk
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pagan, Adrian, 1987. " Three Econometric Methodologies: A Critical Appraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 3-24.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1989.
"Models and Their Uses,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 489-494.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1989. "Models and their uses," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 11, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Morris Goldstein & Nicholas R. Lardy, 2004. "What Kind of Landing for the Chinese Economy?," Policy Briefs PB04-07, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002. "It´s Not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 3, pages 061-114 Central Bank of Chile.
- William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002. "It's Not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 164, Central Bank of Chile.
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 2004. "An Interview With Christopher A. Sims," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 273-294, April.
- Jun, Zhang, 2003. "Investment, investment efficiency, and economic growth in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 713-734, October.
- Michael R. Wickens & Roberto Motto, 2001. "Estimating shocks and impulse response functions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 371-387.
- Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
- King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & He, Xinhua & Liu, Rui & Liu, Shiguo & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2007. "A macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 814-822, September.
- Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Xinhua He & Rui Liu & Shiguo Liu & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2006. "A Macroeconometric Model of the Chinese Economy," Working Papers 553, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
- Martin Zagler & Georg Dürnecker, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 397-418, 07.
- Magnus Blomström & Robert E. Lipsey & Mario Zejan, 1996. "Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic Growth?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(1), pages 269-276.
- Blomström, Magnus & Lipsey, Robert E & Zejan, Mario, 1993. "Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic Growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 870, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Magnus Blomstrom & Robert E. Lipsey & Mario Zejan, 1993. "Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 4436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kwan, Andy C C & Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Junxi, 1999. "Fixed Investment and Economic Growth in China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 67-79.
- Jonathan Temple, 2003. "The Long-Run implications of Growth Theories," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 497-510, 07.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
- Donald A. R. George & Les Oxley & Ken Carlaw, 2003. "Economic Growth in Transition," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 227-237, 07.
- King, Mervyn A & Robson, Mark H, 1993. " A Dynamic Model of Investment and Endogenous Growth," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(4), pages 445-466, December.
- Imai Hiroyuki, 1994. "China's Endogenous Investment Cycle," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 188-216, October.
- Abdelhak Senhadji, 2000. "Sources of Economic Growth: An Extensive Growth Accounting Exercise," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(1), pages 1-6.
- Kenneth I. Carlaw & Richard G. Lipsey, 2003. "Productivity, Technology and Economic Growth: What is the Relationship?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 457-495, 07.
- Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.
- Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)