IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qmw/qmwecw/545.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Much Does Investment Drive Economic Growth in China?

Author

Listed:
  • Duo Qin

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Marie Anne Cagas

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Pilipinas Quising

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Xin-Hua He

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Abstract

Investment-driven growth has long been regarded as a key development strategy in China. This paper investigates empirically the validity of this view. Post-1990 data analyses and macroeconometric model simulations show that market demand has become a regular force in driving investment since reforms, that non-demand-driven investment growth contributes to increasing capital-output ratio far more than output growth, that government investment exerts a pivotal role in amplifying investment cycles, albeit effective in promoting employment, and that delayed and rising consumption from current investment surge can help sustain the impact of growth even with constant-returns-to-scale in the long-run GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Pilipinas Quising & Xin-Hua He, 2005. "How Much Does Investment Drive Economic Growth in China?," Working Papers 545, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:545
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.qmul.ac.uk/sef/media/econ/research/workingpapers/2005/items/wp545.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pagan, Adrian, 1987. "Three Econometric Methodologies: A Critical Appraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 3-24.
    2. Christopher A. Sims, 1989. "Models and Their Uses," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 489-494.
    3. Rebelo, Sergio, 1991. "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 500-521, June.
    4. Morris Goldstein & Nicholas R. Lardy, 2004. "What Kind of Landing for the Chinese Economy?," Policy Briefs PB04-07, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002. "It´s Not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 3, pages 061-114, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Hansen, Lars Peter, 2004. "An Interview With Christopher A. Sims," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 273-294, April.
    7. Jun, Zhang, 2003. "Investment, investment efficiency, and economic growth in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 713-734, October.
    8. Michael R. Wickens & Roberto Motto, 2001. "Estimating shocks and impulse response functions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 371-387.
    9. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
    10. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    11. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & He, Xinhua & Liu, Rui & Liu, Shiguo & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2007. "A macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 814-822, September.
    12. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
    13. Martin Zagler & Georg Dürnecker, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 397-418, July.
    14. Edward K.Y. Chen, 1997. "The Total Factor Productivity Debate: Determinants of Economic Growth in East Asia," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 11(1), pages 18-38, May.
    15. Magnus Blomström & Robert E. Lipsey & Mario Zejan, 1996. "Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic Growth?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(1), pages 269-276.
    16. Kwan, Andy C C & Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Junxi, 1999. "Fixed Investment and Economic Growth in China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 67-79.
    17. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.
    18. Michael Ball & Tanya Morrison & Andrew Wood, 1996. "Structures Investment and Economic Growth: A Long-term International Comparison," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 33(9), pages 1687-1706, November.
    19. Jonathan Temple, 2003. "The Long‐Run implications of Growth Theories," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 497-510, July.
    20. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
    21. Donald A. R. George & Les Oxley & Ken Carlaw, 2003. "Economic Growth in Transition," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 227-237, July.
    22. Qin, Duo & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xinhua & Liu, Shiguo, 2005. "Modeling monetary transmission and policy in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 157-175, March.
    23. King, Mervyn A & Robson, Mark H, 1993. " A Dynamic Model of Investment and Endogenous Growth," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(4), pages 445-466, December.
    24. Imai Hiroyuki, 1994. "China's Endogenous Investment Cycle," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 188-216, October.
    25. Abdelhak Senhadji, 2000. "Sources of Economic Growth: An Extensive Growth Accounting Exercise," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(1), pages 1-6.
    26. Kenneth I. Carlaw & Richard G. Lipsey, 2003. "Productivity, Technology and Economic Growth: What is the Relationship?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 457-495, July.
    27. Yu, Qiao, 1998. "Capital investment, international trade and economic growth in China: Evidence in the 1980-1990s," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 73-84.
    28. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.
    29. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    30. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & He, Xinhua & Liu, Rui & Liu, Shiguo & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2007. "A macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 814-822, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xin-Hua, 2006. "How much does investment drive economic growth in China?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 751-774, October.
    2. Duo Qin, 2006. "VAR Modelling Approach and Cowles Commission Heritage," Working Papers 557, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    4. Rosa Capolupo, 2005. "THE NEW GROWTH THEORIES AND THEIR EMPIRICS, Discussion Paper in Economics, University of Glasgow, N. 2005-04 (http://www.gla.ac.uk/Acad/Economics," GE, Growth, Math methods 0506003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Maria Jesus Herrerias & Vicente Orts, 2011. "The driving forces behind China’s growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(1), pages 79-124, January.
    6. Bouton, L. & Sumlinski, M.A., 2000. "Trends in Private Investment in Developing Countries. Statistics for 1970-1998," Papers 41, World Bank - International Finance Corporation.
    7. Julia Korosteleva & Colin Lawson, 2010. "The Belarusian case of transition: whither financial repression?," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 33-53.
    8. Robert W. Arnold, 2003. "Modeling Long-Run Economic Growth: Technical Paper 2003-04," Working Papers 14497, Congressional Budget Office.
    9. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.
    10. Fulvio Castellacci, 2007. "Evolutionary And New Growth Theories. Are They Converging?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 585-627, July.
    11. Ekaterina Ponomareva & Alexandra Bozhechkova & Alexandr Knobel, 2012. "Factors of Economic Growth," Published Papers 172, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
    12. Rosa Capolupo, "undated". "The New Growth Theoris and their Empirics," Working Papers 2005_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    13. Lawrence Bouton & Mariusz A. Sumlinski, 2000. "Trends in Private Investment in Developing Countries : Statistics for 1970-1998," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13986, December.
    14. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, July.
    15. Benjamin Montmartin & Nadine Massard, 2015. "Is Financial Support For Private R&D Always Justified? A Discussion Based On The Literature On Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 479-505, July.
    16. Måns Söderbom & Francis Teal, 2003. "Openness and human capital as sources of productivity growth: An empirical investigation," CSAE Working Paper Series 2003-06, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    17. Andersson, Björn, 1999. "On the Causality Between Saving and Growth: Long- and Short-Run Dynamics and Country Heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 1999:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    18. Chad Turner & Robert Tamura & Sean Mulholland, 2013. "How important are human capital, physical capital and total factor productivity for determining state economic growth in the United States, 1840–2000?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 319-371, December.
    19. Cem Ertur & Wilfried Koch, 2006. "The Role of Human Capital and Technological Interdependence in Growth and Convergence Processes: International Evidence," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_029, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    20. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2022. "Identifying supply and demand shocks in the South African Economy, 1960–2020," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 349-389, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment; Growth; Impulse response function; Cointegration; Granger non-causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • R34 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Input Demand Analysis
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • P41 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:545. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nicholas Owen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deqmwuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.