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A Macroeconometric Model of the Chinese Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Duo Qin

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Marie Anne Cagas

    (Asian Development Bank (ADB))

  • Geoffrey Ducanes

    (Asian Development Bank (ADB))

  • Xinhua He

    (Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS))

  • Rui Liu

    (Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS))

  • Shiguo Liu

    (Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS))

  • Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos

    (Asian Development Bank (ADB))

  • Pilipinas Quising

    (Asian Development Bank (ADB))

Abstract

This paper describes a quarterly macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy. The model comprises household consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and employment blocks. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral equations and the general→simple dynamic specification approach is adopted. Great efforts have been made to achieve the best possible blend of standard long-run theories, country-specific institutional features and short-run dynamics in data. The tracking performance of the model is evaluated. Forecasting and empirical investigation of a number of topical macroeconomic issues utilizing model simulations have shown the model to be immensely useful.

Suggested Citation

  • Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Xinhua He & Rui Liu & Shiguo Liu & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2006. "A Macroeconometric Model of the Chinese Economy," Working Papers 553, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp553
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    File URL: http://www.econ.qmul.ac.uk/media/econ/research/workingpapers/archive/wp553.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. J. Polak, 1997. "The IMF Monetary Model At Forty," IMF Working Papers 97/49, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xin-Hua, 2006. "How much does investment drive economic growth in China?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 751-774, October.
    3. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    4. J. J. Polak, 1957. "Monetary Analysis of Income Formation and Payments Problems," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-50, November.
    5. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Xinhua He & Rui Liu & Shiguo Liu, 2005. "Income Disparity and Economic Growth: Evidence from China," Working Papers 548, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Constantin Constantinescu, 2013. "Green economy - an opportunity during the global crisis," Social-Economic Debates, Association for Entreprenorial Spirit Promotion, vol. 2(2), pages 29-36, December.
    2. repec:eee:renene:v:116:y:2018:i:pa:p:194-201 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2015:i:1:p:20:d:61556 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xin-Hua, 2006. "How much does investment drive economic growth in China?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 751-774, October.
    5. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2008. "Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 399-413.
    6. Vo Le & Kent Matthews & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Zhiguo Xiao, 2014. "Banking and the Macroeconomy in China: A Banking Crisis Deferred?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 123-161, February.
    7. Ya Wang & Lihua Zhou, 2016. "Assessment of the Coordination Ability of Sustainable Social-Ecological Systems Development Based on a Set Pair Analysis: A Case Study in Yanchi County, China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(8), pages 1-20, August.
    8. Duo Qin & Xinhua He, 2011. "Is the Chinese Currency Substantially Misaligned to Warrant Further Appreciation?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(8), pages 1288-1307, August.
    9. Beretta, Silvio & Iannini, Giuseppe, 2007. "A US-EU Economic Block versus China? How Viable is it? A Note," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 60(4), pages 409-420.
    10. repec:sdb:journl:v:2:y:2013:i:2:p:29-36 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Zhang, Mingzhu & He, Changzheng & Gu, Xin & Liatsis, Panos & Zhu, Bing, 2013. "D-GMDH: A novel inductive modelling approach in the forecasting of the industrial economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 514-520.
    12. Lianhui Li & Chunyang Mu & Shaohu Ding & Zheng Wang & Runyang Mo & Yongfeng Song, 2015. "A Robust Weighted Combination Forecasting Method Based on Forecast Model Filtering and Adaptive Variable Weight Determination," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    13. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Matthews, Kent & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xiao, Zhiguo, 2015. "China’s financial crisis – the role of banks and monetary policy," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/1, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconometric model; Chinese economy; Forecasts; Simulations;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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