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A Macroeconometric Model of the Chinese Economy

  • Duo Qin

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Marie Anne Cagas

    (Asian Development Bank (ADB))

  • Geoffrey Ducanes

    (Asian Development Bank (ADB))

  • Xinhua He

    (Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS))

  • Rui Liu

    (Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS))

  • Shiguo Liu

    (Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS))

  • Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos

    (Asian Development Bank (ADB))

  • Pilipinas Quising

    (Asian Development Bank (ADB))

This paper describes a quarterly macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy. The model comprises household consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and employment blocks. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral equations and the general→simple dynamic specification approach is adopted. Great efforts have been made to achieve the best possible blend of standard long-run theories, country-specific institutional features and short-run dynamics in data. The tracking performance of the model is evaluated. Forecasting and empirical investigation of a number of topical macroeconomic issues utilizing model simulations have shown the model to be immensely useful.

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File URL: http://www.econ.qmul.ac.uk/papers/doc/wp553.pdf
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Paper provided by Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 553.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp553
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  1. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xin-Hua, 2006. "How much does investment drive economic growth in China?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 751-774, October.
  2. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Xinhua He & Rui Liu & Shiguo Liu, 2005. "Income Disparity and Economic Growth: Evidence from China," Working Papers 548, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  3. J. J. Polak, 1997. "The IMF Monetary Model At Forty," IMF Working Papers 97/49, International Monetary Fund.
  4. J. J. Polak, 1957. "Monetary Analysis of Income Formation and Payments Problems," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-50, November.
  5. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, March.
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