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What Might the Next Emerging-Market Financial Crisis Look Like?

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  • Morris Goldstein

    () (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

This paper addresses the following question: If a financial crisis affecting a group of emerging economies were to take place sometime over the next three years, where would the crisis likely originate, how could it be transmitted to other economies, and which economies would be most affected by particular transmission or contagion mechanisms? A set of indicators is presented to gauge the vulnerability of individual emerging economies to various shocks, including a slowdown in import demand in both China and the United States, a fall in primary commodity prices, increased costs and lower availability of external financing, alternative patterns of exchange rate changes, and pressures operating on monetary and fiscal policies in emerging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Morris Goldstein, 2005. "What Might the Next Emerging-Market Financial Crisis Look Like?," Working Paper Series WP05-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp05-7
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    File URL: https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/what-might-next-emerging-market-financial-crisis-look
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Peter B. Kenen, 2007. "The Benefits and Risks of Financial Globalization," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 27(2), pages 179-183, Spring/Su.
    2. Prasad, Eswar S., 2009. "Is the Chinese growth miracle built to last?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 103-123, March.
    3. Paolo Mauro & Tatiana Didier & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2006. "Vanishing Contagion?," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 06/01, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Özlem Onaran, 2007. "International financial markets and fragility in the Eastern Europe: "can it happen" here?," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp108, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    5. Claudiu Tiberiu ALBULESCU, 2008. "The Spread Of The Capital Marketss Global Crisis: Does The Countries Industrial Profile Matter?," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(4(6)_Wint).
    6. Yilmaz Akyüz, 2007. "Debt Sustainability in Emerging Markets: A Critical Appraisal," Working Papers 61, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    7. Onaran, Özlem, 2006. "Speculation-led growth and fragility in Turkey: Does EU make a difference or "can it happen again"?," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 1118, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    8. Didier, Tatiana & Mauro, Paolo & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2008. "Vanishing financial contagion?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 775-791.
    9. Yilmaz AKYüZ, 2005. "Reforming The Imf: Back To The Drawing Board," G-24 Discussion Papers 38, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    emerging markets; financial crisis; China slowdown; US current account;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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