IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfpr/y2006ijun.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Bacchetta
  • Eric Van Wincoop

Abstract

The uncovered interest rate parity equation is the cornerstone of most models in international macro. However, this equation does not hold empirically since the forward discount, or interest rate differential, is negatively related to the subsequent change in the exchange rate. This forward discount puzzle implies that excess returns on foreign currency investments are predictable. In this paper we investigate to what extent incomplete information processing can explain this puzzle. We consider two types of incompleteness: infrequent and partial information processing. We calibrate a two-country general equilibrium model to the data and show that incomplete information processing can fully match the empirical evidence. It can also account for several related empirical phenomena, including that of ?delayed overshooting?. We show that incomplete information processing is consistent both with evidence that little capital is devoted to actively managing short-term currency positions and with a small welfare gain from active portfolio management. The gain is small because exchange rate changes are very hard to predict. The welfare gain is easily outweighed by a small cost of active portfolio management.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2006:i:jun
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/vanWincoop.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Linxiu & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 2002. "Employment, emerging labor markets, and the role of education in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 313-328.
    2. McMillan, John & Whalley, John & Zhu, Lijing, 1989. "The Impact of China's Economic Reforms on Agricultural Productivity Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 781-807, August.
    3. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Nomura, Koji, 2005. "The industry origins of Japanese economic growth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 482-542, December.
    4. Gregory C. Chow, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 809-842.
    5. Li, Kui-Wai, 2003. "China's Capital and Productivity Measurement Using Financial Resources," Center Discussion Papers 28469, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    6. Alwyn Young, 2003. "Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1220-1261, December.
    7. Fan, Shenggen & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2002. "Production and Productivity Growth in Chinese Agriculture: New National and Regional Measures," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(4), pages 819-838, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dekle, Robert & Vandenbroucke, Guillaume, 2012. "A quantitative analysis of China's structural transformation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 119-135.
    2. Robert Dekle & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2006. "A quantitative analysis of China’s structural transformation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun.
    3. Cao, Kang Hua & Birchenall, Javier A., 2013. "Agricultural productivity, structural change, and economic growth in post-reform China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 165-180.
    4. repec:bla:rdevec:v:14:y:2010:i:s1:p:487-498 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Liu, Tung & Li, Kui-Wai, 2006. "Disparity in factor contributions between coastal and inner provinces in post-reform China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 449-470.
    6. Li, Kui-Wai & Liu, Tung, 2011. "Economic and productivity growth decomposition: An application to post-reform China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 366-373.
    7. Tasso Adamopoulos & Loren Brandt & Jessica Leight & Diego Restuccia, 2022. "Misallocation, Selection, and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis With Panel Data From China," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(3), pages 1261-1282, May.
    8. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Yingyi Qian, 2006. "The Return to Capital in China," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(2), pages 61-102.
    9. Tong, Haizhi & Fulginiti, Lilyan E. & Sesmero, Juan P., 2009. "Chinese Regional Agricultural Productivity: 1994-2005," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51784, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Simon Alder & Lin Shao & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2012. "The Effect of Economic Reform and Industrial Policy in a Panel of Chinese Cities," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_061, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    11. Li, Kui-Wai, 2009. "China's total factor productivity estimates by region, investment sources and ownership," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 213-230, September.
    12. He, Qichun, 2011. "Dances with Chinese data: are the reform period Chinese provincial panel data reliable?," MPRA Paper 35418, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
    14. Zhou, Xianbo & Li, Kui-Wai & Li, Qin, 2011. "An analysis on technical efficiency in post-reform China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 357-372, September.
    15. Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & PING HUA & ZHICHENG LIANG, 2006. "Financial Development, Economic Efficiency, And Productivity Growth: Evidence From China," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(1), pages 27-52, March.
    16. Zheng, Jinghai & Bigsten, Arne & Hu, Angang, 2009. "Can China's Growth be Sustained? A Productivity Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 874-888, April.
    17. Kui-Wai Li & Tung Liu & Lihong Yun, 2007. "Technology Progress, Efficiency, and Scale of Economy in Post-reform China," Working Papers 200701, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2007.
    18. Zhou, Yixiao & Tyers, Rod, 2019. "Automation and inequality in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    19. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2006. "Neither a borrower nor a lender: Does China's zero net foreign asset position make economic sense?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 943-971, July.
    20. Yin, Yongkun, 2023. "China’s demographic transition: A quantitative analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    21. Shawn Xiaoguang Chen & Yudan Cheng & Liutang Gong & Wenjia Tian, 2023. "A Big Push of Panda from the Ground: Land Subsidy and Structural Transformation in China," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 23-09, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2006:i:jun. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.