IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/gunwpe/0236.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can China’s Growth be Sustained? A Productivity Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Zheng, Jinghai

    () (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

  • Bigsten, Arne

    () (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

  • Hu, Angang

    () (Center for China Studies, School of Public Policy and Management)

Abstract

China’s unorthodox approach to economic transition has resulted in sustained high growth. However, in recent years Chinese economists have increasingly referred to the growth pattern as “extensive”, generated mainly through the expansion of inputs. Our investigation of the Chinese economy during the reform period finds that reform measures often resulted in one-time level effects on TFP. China now needs to adjust its reform program towards sustained increases in productivity. Market and ownership reforms, and open door policies have improved the situation under which Chinese firms operate, but further institutional reforms are required to consolidate China’s move to a modern market economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng, Jinghai & Bigsten, Arne & Hu, Angang, 2006. "Can China’s Growth be Sustained? A Productivity Perspective," Working Papers in Economics 236, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0236
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/2855
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Finn E. Kydland & Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga, 2002. "Argentina's Lost Decade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 152-165, January.
    2. Kung, James Kai-sing & Lin, Yi-min, 2007. "The Decline of Township-and-Village Enterprises in China's Economic Transition," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 569-584, April.
    3. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo, 2000. "Understanding china's economic performance," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-50.
    4. Woo Wing Thye & Hai Wen & Jin Yibiao & Fan Gang, 1994. "How Successful Has Chinese Enterprise Reform Been? Pitfalls in Opposite Biases and Focus," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 410-437, June.
    5. C. Goodhart & C. Xu, 1996. "The Rise of China as an Economic Power," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 155(1), pages 56-80, February.
    6. Boone, Laurence & Hall, Stephen G, 1999. "Stylized Facts of the Business Cycle Revisited: A Structural Modelling Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 253-268, July.
    7. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters,in: The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    9. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    10. Rodrik, Dani, 2005. "Growth Strategies," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 967-1014 Elsevier.
    11. Lau, Kam-Tim & Brada, Josef C., 1990. "Technological progress and technical efficiency in Chinese industrial growth: A frontier production function approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 113-124.
    12. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2006. "Rebalancing Growth in China: A Three-Handed Approach," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20.
    13. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "What's So Special about China's Exports?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19.
    14. Zheng, Jinghai & Liu, Xiaoxuan & Bigsten, Arne, 1998. "Ownership Structure and Determinants of Technical Efficiency: An Application of Data Envelopment Analysis to Chinese Enterprises (1986-1990)," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 465-484, September.
    15. Richard Herd & Sean Dougherty, 2007. "Growth Prospects in China and India Compared," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 4(1), pages 65-89, June.
    16. Prescott, Edward C, 1998. "Needed: A Theory of Total Factor Productivity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 525-551, August.
    17. Chow, Gregory & Lin, An-loh, 2002. "Accounting for Economic Growth in Taiwan and Mainland China: A Comparative Analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 507-530, September.
    18. Zuliu F. Hu & Mohsin S. Khan, 1997. "Why Is China Growing So Fast?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 103-131, March.
    19. Peter Hugh Nolan, 2005. "China at the crossroads," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22.
    20. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2007. "Trend Extraction From Time Series With Structural Breaks," Discussion Papers in Economics 1926, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    21. Jinghai Zheng & Angang Hu, 2006. "An Empirical Analysis of Provincial Productivity in China (1979-2001)," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 221-239.
    22. Jesus Felipe, 1999. "Total factor productivity growth in East Asia: A critical survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 1-41.
    23. Carsten A. Holz, 2006. "CHINA's REFORM PERIOD ECONOMIC GROWTH: HOW RELIABLE ARE ANGUS MADDISON's ESTIMATES?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 52(1), pages 85-119, March.
    24. Alan Ahearne & Finn Kydland & Mark A. Wynne, 2006. "Ireland’s Great Depression," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 215-243.
    25. Carsten A. Holz, 2004. "China's Statistical System in Transition: Challenges, Data Problems, and Institutional Innovations," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 50(3), pages 381-409, September.
    26. Ofer, Gur, 1987. "Soviet Economic Growth: 1928-1985," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(4), pages 1767-1833, December.
    27. Zhiqiang Liu, 2000. "The Nature of China's Economic Growth in the Past Two Decades," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 201-214.
    28. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 331-336, May.
    29. Angelica E. Njuguna & Stephen N. Karingi & Mwangi S. Kimenyi, 2005. "Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya," Working papers 2005-45, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    30. Jefferson, Gary H. & Rawski, Thomas G. & Li, Wang & Yuxin, Zheng, 2000. "Ownership, Productivity Change, and Financial Performance in Chinese Industry," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 786-813, December.
    31. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
    32. Wang, Yan & Yao, Yudong, 2003. "Sources of China's economic growth 1952-1999: incorporating human capital accumulation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 32-52.
    33. Irmen, Andreas, 2005. "Extensive and intensive growth in a neoclassical framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1427-1448, August.
    34. Chow, Gregory C & Li, Kui-Wai, 2002. "China's Economic Growth: 1952-2010," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(1), pages 247-256, October.
    35. Justin Yifu Lin & Zhiqiang Liu, 2000. "Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth in China," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(1), pages 1-21.
    36. Gregory C. Chow, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 809-842.
    37. Kuijs, Louis, 2006. "How will China's saving-investment balance evolve ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3958, The World Bank.
    38. Mark W. French, 2001. "Estimating changes in trend growth of total factor productivity: Kalman and H-P filters versus a Markov-switching framework," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    39. repec:sae:niesru:v:155:y::i:1:p:56-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Fan, Shenggen & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2002. "Production and Productivity Growth in Chinese Agriculture: New National and Regional Measures," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(4), pages 819-838, July.
    41. Nishimizu, Mieko & Page, John M, Jr, 1982. "Total Factor Productivity Growth, Technological Progress and Technical Efficiency Change: Dimensions of Productivity Change in Yugoslavia, 1965-78," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 920-936, December.
    42. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2002. "Information and the Change in the Paradigm in Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 460-501, June.
    43. Zheng, Jinghai & Liu, Xiaoxuan & Bigsten, Arne, 2003. "Efficiency, technical progress, and best practice in Chinese state enterprises (1980-1994)," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 134-152, March.
    44. Perkins, Dwight Heald, 1988. "Reforming China's Economic System," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 601-645, June.
    45. Paul Collier & Jan Willem Gunning, 1999. "Why Has Africa Grown Slowly?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
    46. Robert W. Mead, 2003. "A Revisionist View Of Chinese Agricultural Productivity?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(1), pages 117-131, January.
    47. Wen, Guanzhong James, 1993. "Total Factor Productivity Change in China's Farming Sector: 1952-1989," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(1), pages 1-41, October.
    48. Alwyn Young, 2003. "Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1220-1261, December.
    49. Cecile Batisse & Sandra Poncet, 2004. "Protectionism and Industry Location in Chinese Provinces," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 133-154.
    50. Pelaez, Rolando F., 2004. "Dating the productivity slowdown with a structural time-series model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 253-264, May.
    51. Xu, Yingfeng, 1999. "Agricultural productivity in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 108-121.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Minjia & Guariglia, Alessandra, 2013. "Internal financial constraints and firm productivity in China: Do liquidity and export behavior make a difference?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1123-1140.
    2. Miaojie Yu, 2010. "Processing Trade, Firm's Productivity, and Tariff Reductions : Evidence from Chinese Products," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22799, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Shahid Yusuf & Kaoru Nabeshima, 2009. "Growth through Innovation : An Industrial Strategy for Shanghai," World Bank Other Operational Studies 18613, The World Bank.
    4. Yao, Yang, 2014. "The Chinese Growth Miracle," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 7, pages 943-1031 Elsevier.
    5. Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Hodler, Roland & Parks, Bradley C. & Raschky, Paul A. & Tierney, Michael J., 2015. "Aid on Demand: African Leaders and the Geography of China's Foreign Assistance," CEPR Discussion Papers 10704, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. You, Jing & Huang, Yongfu, 2013. "Green-to-Grey China: Determinants and Forecasts of its Green Growth," MPRA Paper 57468, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Jul 2014.
    7. Miaojie Yu & Guangliang Ye & Baozhi Qu, 2013. "Trade Liberalisation, Product Complexity and Productivity Improvement: Evidence from Chinese Firms," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7), pages 912-934, July.
    8. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
    9. Chen, Shiyi, 2015. "Environmental pollution emissions, regional productivity growth and ecological economic development in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 171-182.
    10. Minjia Chen & Alessandra Guariglia, "undated". "Financial constraints and firm productivity in China: do liquidity and export behavior make a difference?," Discussion Papers 11/09, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    11. Yakub Halabi, 2013. "Perpetuating the global division of labour: defensive free trade and development in the third world," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 20(1), pages 91-120, June.
    12. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-32.
    13. Wang, Daphne & Esqueda, Omar A., 2014. "National cultural effects on leverage decisions: Evidence from emerging-market ADRs," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 152-177.
    14. Brandt, Loren & Van Biesebroeck, Johannes & Zhang, Yifan, 2012. "Creative accounting or creative destruction? Firm-level productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 339-351.
    15. Chen, Shiyi & Golley, Jane, 2014. "‘Green’ productivity growth in China's industrial economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 89-98.
    16. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Hoarding of international reserves in China: Mercantilism, domestic consumption and US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1044-1078.
    17. Jeannine Bailliu & Mark Kruger & Argyn Toktamyssov & Wheaton Welbourn, 2016. "How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030," Staff Working Papers 16-15, Bank of Canada.
    18. Li, Ke & Lin, Boqiang, 2015. "Measuring green productivity growth of Chinese industrial sectors during 1998–2011," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 279-295.
    19. Jinghai Zheng & Angang Hu & Arne Bigsten, 2009. "Potential output in a rapidly developing economy: the case of China and a comparison with the United States and the European Union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 317-342.
    20. repec:taf:rjapxx:v:13:y:2008:i:3:p:313-331 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Du, Jun & Liu, Xiaoxuan & Zhou, Ying, 2014. "State advances and private retreats? — Evidence of aggregate productivity decomposition in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 459-474.
    22. Giovanni Dosi & Jiasu Lei & Xiaodan Yu, 2013. "Institutional Change and Productivity Growth in China's Manufacturing 1998-2007: the Microeconomics of Creative Restructuring," LEM Papers Series 2013/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Productivity; China;

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie Andersson). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/naiguse.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.