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Growth Prospects in China and India Compared

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  • Richard Herd
  • Sean Dougherty

Abstract

This paper compares the growth prospects of China and India through a growth accounting analysis. Consistent time series for capital stock and employment are constructed using available survey data, and recent revisions to the national accounts for both countries are incorporated. The results allow for a discussion of the sources of growth in both countries, and a consideration of each country's rate of potential growth in light of the outlook for national savings, as demographic shifts occur in each country.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Herd & Sean Dougherty, 2007. "Growth Prospects in China and India Compared," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 4(1), pages 65-89, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:liu:liucej:v:4:y:2007:i:1:p:65-89
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franco Modigliani & Shi Larry Cao, 2004. "The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 145-170, March.
    2. Chow, Gregory C., 2006. "New capital estimates for China: Comments," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 186-192.
    3. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins & Arvind Virmani, 2006. "Sources of Growth in the Indian Economy," India Policy Forum, Global Economy and Development Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 3(1), pages 1-69.
    4. Holz, Carsten A., 2006. "New capital estimates for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 142-185.
    5. Nick Vanston, 2006. "Summary of a Workshop on Global Convergence Scenarios: Structural and Policy Issues," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 483, OECD Publishing.
    6. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(2), pages 193-228, September.
    7. Sean Dougherty & Richard Herd, 2005. "Fast-Falling Barriers and Growing Concentration: The Emergence of a Private Economy in China," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 471, OECD Publishing.
    8. Gregory C. Chow, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 809-842.
    9. Luiz de Mello & Per Mathis Kongsrud & Robert W. R. Price, 2004. "Saving Behaviour and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 397, OECD Publishing.
    10. Arvind Virmani, 2006. "India's Economic Growth History: Fluctuations, Trends, Break Points and Phases," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 81-103, July.
    11. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
    12. T. N. Srinivasan & Suresh D. Tendulkar, 2003. "Reintegrating India with the World Economy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 98.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eswar S. Prasad, 2011. "Rebalancing Growth in Asia," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 27-66, April.
    2. Nazmi, Nader & Revilla, Julio E., 2008. "Economic Efficiency and Growth: Evidence from Brazil, China, and India," WIDER Working Paper Series 086, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Alan Heston, 2008. "What Can Be Learned About the Economies of China and India from Purchasing Power Comparisons?," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22166, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. Shen, Keting & Wang, Jing & Whalley, John, 2016. "Measuring Changes in the Bilateral Technology Gaps between China, India and the U.S. 1979 - 2008," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 261, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    5. Ding Lu, 2017. "China's Growth Slowdown and Prospects for Becoming a High-Income Developed Economy," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(1), pages 89-113, Winter/Sp.
    6. Enrica Di Stefano & Daniela Marconi, 2015. "Assessing potential growth in emerging countries after the global financial crisis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 256, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Alan Heston, 2010. "What Can Be Learned About the Economies of China and India from Purchasing Power Comparisons?," Working Papers id:2777, eSocialSciences.
    8. Zheng, Jinghai & Bigsten, Arne & Hu, Angang, 2009. "Can China's Growth be Sustained? A Productivity Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 874-888, April.
    9. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:62:y:2017:i:05:n:s0217590815501003 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2011. "China and India: Openness, Trade and Effects on Economic Growth," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 8(1), pages 129-154, June.
    11. Monojit Chatterji & Sushil Mohan & Sayantan Ghosh Dastidar, 2014. "Relationship Between Trade Openness And Economic Growth Of India: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Academic Research in Economics, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Accounting and Financial Management Constanta, vol. 6(1 (March)), pages 45-69.
    12. Jin, Keyu, 2009. "Industrial structure and financial capital flows," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25827, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Nader Nazmi & Julio Revilla, 2011. "Brazil’s growth performance: a comparative perspective to the Asian giants," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 7-24, April.
    14. Kan, Kamhon & Wang, Yong, 2013. "Comparing China and India: A factor accumulation perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 879-894.
    15. Keting Shen & Jing Wang & John Whalley, 2015. "Measuring Changes in the Bilateral Technology Gaps between China, India and the U.S. 1979 - 2008," NBER Working Papers 21657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth accounting; potential growth; capital measurement; demographics; China; India;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P52 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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