IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v101y2013icp49-62.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The one-child policy: A macroeconomic analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Liao, Pei-Ju

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of China's one-child policy. Using a calibrated general-equilibrium model, a benchmark with a fertility constraint in place is compared to a counterfactual experiment without the fertility constraint. The results indicate that the implementation of the one-child policy promotes the accumulation of human capital and increases per capita output. In addition, the policy leads to different welfare effects across generations and skill groups. The initial generation would benefit from relaxing the one-child policy, but the following generations would be hurt. A redistribution effect between skilled and unskilled workers is also observed. These findings demonstrate that focusing solely on GDP per capita as a measure of economic well-being paints an incomplete picture of the welfare consequences of population policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Liao, Pei-Ju, 2013. "The one-child policy: A macroeconomic analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 49-62.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:101:y:2013:i:c:p:49-62
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.09.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387812000740
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.09.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mikhail Golosov & Larry E. Jones & Michèle Tertilt, 2007. "Efficiency with Endogenous Population Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1039-1071, July.
    2. S.K. Bhutani, 2009. "China and India," India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, , vol. 65(4), pages 383-391, October.
    3. Byrd, William A., 1989. "Plan and market in the Chinese economy: A simple general equilibrium model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 177-204, June.
    4. Mark R. Rosenzweig & Junsen Zhang, 2009. "Do Population Control Policies Induce More Human Capital Investment? Twins, Birth Weight and China's "One-Child" Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(3), pages 1149-1174.
    5. Matthias Doepke, 2004. "Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 347-383, September.
    6. Matthias Doepke & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2005. "The Macroeconomics of Child Labor Regulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1492-1524, December.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 1997. "Why is China Growing So Fast?," IMF Economic Issues 1997/005, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-563, July.
    9. Zuliu F. Hu & Mohsin S. Khan, 1997. "Why Is China Growing So Fast?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 103-131, March.
    10. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    11. Chow, Gregory C, 1985. "A Model of Chinese National Income Determination," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 782-792, August.
    12. Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang & Yi Zhu, 2005. "The Effect of the One-Child Policy on Fertility in China: Identification Based on the Differences-in-Differences," Discussion Papers 00019, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
    13. Chow, Gregory & Lin, An-loh, 2002. "Accounting for Economic Growth in Taiwan and Mainland China: A Comparative Analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 507-530, September.
    14. Per Krusell & Lee E. Ohanian & JosÈ-Victor RÌos-Rull & Giovanni L. Violante, 2000. "Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1029-1054, September.
    15. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt, 2010. "Complements Versus Substitutes And Trends In Fertility Choice In Dynastic Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(3), pages 671-699, August.
    16. Dennis Tao Yang & Marjorie McElroy, 2000. "Carrots and Sticks: Fertility Effects of China's Population Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 389-392, May.
    17. Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang, 2007. "Do High Birth Rates Hamper Economic Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 110-117, February.
    18. Zhuang, Juzhong, 1996. "Estimating Distortions in the Chinese Economy: A General Equilibrium Approach," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(252), pages 543-568, November.
    19. Eckstein, Zvi & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 1985. "Endogenous fertility and optimal population size," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 93-106, June.
    20. Wang, Yan & Yao, Yudong, 2003. "Sources of China's economic growth 1952-1999: incorporating human capital accumulation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 32-52.
    21. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466.
    22. Gregory C. Chow, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 809-842.
    23. S. Narayan, 2009. "India," Chapters, in: Peter Draper & Philip Alves & Razeen Sally (ed.), The Political Economy of Trade Reform in Emerging Markets, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    24. Alwyn Young, 2003. "Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1220-1261, December.
    25. BAI, Chong-En & QIAN, Zhenjie, 2010. "The factor income distribution in China: 1978-2007," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 650-670, December.
    26. Zhang, Junsen & Spencer, Byron G, 1992. "Who Signs China's One-Child Certificate, and Why?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 5(3), pages 203-214, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    2. Hanewald, Katja & Jia, Ruo & Liu, Zining, 2021. "Why is inequality higher among the old? Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Honghui Li & Masato Hiwatari, 2024. "Unveiling the direct and indirect effects of sibling size on happiness: evidence from adults in early and mid-adulthood in China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Bairoliya, Neha & Miller, Ray, 2021. "Social insurance, demographics, and rural-urban migration in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Doepke, Matthias & Hannusch, Anne & Kindermann, Fabian & Tertilt, Michèle, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," IZA Discussion Papers 15224, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Zheng Shen & James Yang, 2021. "A Simulation Study of the Effect of Delayed Retirement on Welfare of the Elderly: Evidence from China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    7. Tian, Xu & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2020. "Are only children in China more likely to be obese/overweight than their counterparts with siblings?," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    8. Juan Carlos Cordoba, 2015. "Children, Dynastic Altruism and the Wealth of Nations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 774-791, October.
    9. Xue, Jianpo & Yip, Chong K., 2017. "One-child policy in China : A unified growth analysis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    10. Hualei Yang, 2016. "The choice of pension and retirement systems when post-1960s baby boomers start to retire in China," China Finance and Economic Review, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Cordoba, Juan Carlos & Liu, Xiying, 2014. "Altruism, Fertility and Risk," Staff General Research Papers Archive 37481, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. repec:zbw:bofitp:2017_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Pengkun Wu & Yuanyuan Wu & Chong Wu, 2018. "Research on Fertility Policy in China: The Relative Necessity for Reform Among the Different Provinces," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 751-767, January.
    14. Bairoliya, Neha & Miller, Ray, 2021. "Demographic transition, human capital and economic growth in China," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    15. Gu, Ke & Stoyanov, Andrey, 2022. "Female Labor Supply and International Trade," MPRA Paper 111778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. İmrohoroğlu, Ayşe & Zhao, Kai, 2018. "The chinese saving rate: Long-term care risks, family insurance, and demographics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 33-52.
    17. Zhen Hu & James Yang, 2021. "Does Delayed Retirement Crowd Out Workforce Welfare? Evidence in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, November.
    18. Szabó-Bakos, Eszter & Kuncz, Izabella & Németh, Petra, 2023. "A harmincévesnél fiatalabb anyák szja-kedvezményének várható demográfiai és makrogazdasági hatásai [The expected demographic and macroeconomic effects of the personal income tax relief for mothers ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1213-1229.
    19. Liu, Xiying, 2015. "Optimal population and policy implications," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800005546, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    20. Zhu, Xi & Whalley, John & Zhao, Xiliang, 2014. "Intergenerational transfer, human capital and long-term growth in China under the one child policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 275-283.
    21. Xue, Jianpo & Yip, Chong K., 2017. "One-child policy in China: A unified growth analysis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2017, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    22. Pei-Ju Liao & Ping Wang & Yin-Chi Wang & Chong Kee Yip, 2020. "To Stay or to Migrate? When Becker Meets Harris-Todaro," NBER Working Papers 27767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Ziqi Wang & Ziyao Huang & Jingjing Cai, 2023. "Does the One-Child Policy Improve Chinese Human Capital? A Propensity Score Matching Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-24, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhu, Xi & Whalley, John & Zhao, Xiliang, 2014. "Intergenerational transfer, human capital and long-term growth in China under the one child policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 275-283.
    2. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2014. "Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 529-564, April.
    3. Lili Kang & Fei Peng, 2018. "Economic Reform and Productivity Convergence in China," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 17(1), pages 50-82, June.
    4. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Yingyi Qian, 2006. "The Return to Capital in China," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(2), pages 61-102.
    5. Zheng, Jinghai & Bigsten, Arne & Hu, Angang, 2009. "Can China's Growth be Sustained? A Productivity Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 874-888, April.
    6. Minzhe Du & Bing Wang & Yanrui Wu, 2014. "Sources of China’s Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis Based on the BML Index with Green Growth Accounting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(9), pages 1-22, September.
    7. CHI, Wei, 2008. "The role of human capital in China's economic development: Review and new evidence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 421-436, September.
    8. Zhou, Xianbo & Li, Kui-Wai & Li, Qin, 2011. "An analysis on technical efficiency in post-reform China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 357-372, September.
    9. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2006. "Neither a borrower nor a lender: Does China's zero net foreign asset position make economic sense?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 943-971, July.
    10. Diego Romero-Ávila, 2013. "Is Physical Investment The Key To China'S Growth Miracle?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(4), pages 1948-1971, October.
    11. Yin, Yongkun, 2023. "China’s demographic transition: A quantitative analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    12. Alice Schoonbroodt, 2010. "Who Owns Children and Does It Matter?," Working Papers id:2360, eSocialSciences.
    13. Li, Kui-Wai & Liu, Tung, 2011. "Economic and productivity growth decomposition: An application to post-reform China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 366-373.
    14. WU, Jidong & LI, Ning & SHI, Peijun, 2014. "Benchmark wealth capital stock estimations across China's 344 prefectures: 1978 to 2012," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 288-302.
    15. Nazrul Islam & Erbiao Dai & Hiroshi Sakamoto, 2006. "Role of TFP in China's Growth," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 127-159, June.
    16. Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2011. "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth," Center for Development Economics 2011-07, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Feb 2013.
    17. Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2013. "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 97-130, March.
    18. Huang, Xianfeng & Li, Ping & Lotspeich, Richard, 2010. "Economic growth and multi-tasking by state-owned enterprises: An analytic framework and empirical study based on Chinese provincial data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 160-177, June.
    19. Kashif Munir & Shahzad Arshad, 2018. "Factor accumulation and economic growth in Pakistan: incorporating human capital," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(3), pages 480-491, March.
    20. Chadwick Curtis, 2016. "Economic Reforms and the Evolution of China's Total Factor Productivity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 225-245, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    The one-child policy; Fertility; Population policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:101:y:2013:i:c:p:49-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.