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To Stay or to Migrate? When Becker Meets Harris-Todaro

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  • Pei-Ju Liao
  • Ping Wang
  • Yin-Chi Wang
  • Chong Kee Yip

Abstract

Allowing migration activity as an integral part of demographic transition and economic development, we establish a locational quantity-quality trade-off of children and explore its macroeconomic consequences. We construct a dynamic competitive migration equilibrium framework with rural agents heterogeneous in skills and fertility preferences. We then establish and characterize a mixed migration equilibrium where high-skilled rural agents with low fertility preferences always migrate to cities, low-skilled with high fertility preferences always stay, and only an endogenously determined fraction of high-skilled/high fertility preferences or low-skilled/low fertility preferences ends up moving. By calibrating our model to fit the data from China, we find interesting interactions between fertility and migration decisions in various counterfactual experiments with respect to changes in migration, population control and rural land entitlement policies. We conclude that overlooking the locational quantity-quality trade-off of children may lead to nonnegligible biases in assessing the implications and effectiveness of government policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Pei-Ju Liao & Ping Wang & Yin-Chi Wang & Chong Kee Yip, 2020. "To Stay or to Migrate? When Becker Meets Harris-Todaro," NBER Working Papers 27767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27767
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Deininger, Klaus & Jin, Songqing, 2009. "Securing property rights in transition: Lessons from implementation of China's rural land contracting law," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 22-38, May.
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    3. Liao, Pei-Ju, 2013. "The one-child policy: A macroeconomic analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 49-62.
    4. Xiaogang Wu & Donald Treiman, 2004. "The household registration system and social stratification in China: 1955–1996," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(2), pages 363-384, May.
    5. Ran Tao & Zhigang Xu, 2007. "Urbanization, rural land system and social security for migrants in China," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(7), pages 1301-1320.
    6. Robert D. Retherford & Minja Kim Choe & Jiajian Chen & Li Xiru & Cui Hongyan, 2005. "How Far Has Fertility in China Really Declined?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(1), pages 57-84, March.
    7. Loraine West, 1999. "Pension reform in China: Preparing for the future," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 153-183.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pei-Ju Liao & Ping Wang & Yin-Chi Wang & Chong K. Yip, 2020. "Fertility and Internal Migration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 102(4), pages 429-445, October.
    2. Fried, Stephie & Lagakos, David, 2021. "Rural electrification, migration and structural transformation: Evidence from Ethiopia," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Garriga, Carlos & Hedlund, Aaron & Tang, Yang & Wang, Ping, 2021. "Rural-urban migration and house prices in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. William R. Emmons & Jacob Haas & Christopher J. Neely, 2020. "Responses of International Central Banks to the COVID-19 Crisis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 102(4), pages 338-384, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R28 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Government Policy

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