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Spatially heterogeneous drivers of hukou transfer intentions in China: a geographically weighted logistic regression analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Feng Shi

    (Southwest Jiaotong University
    Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
    Service Science and Innovation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province)

  • Weiwei Cao

    (Civil Aviation Flight University of China)

  • Runhua Huang

    (Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
    Zhejiang Business College
    Hangzhou International Urbanology Research Center and Zhejiang Urban Governance Studies Center)

  • Wei Geng

    (Southwest Jiaotong University
    Service Science and Innovation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province)

Abstract

Understanding spatial heterogeneity in the factors shaping floating populations’ hukou transfer intentions is vital for fostering social harmony and sustainable urban development in China. Utilizing data from the 2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, this study investigates the spatial heterogeneity in the determinants of hukou transfer decisions among migrant individuals and uncovers underlying root causes. Employing GIS spatial analysis, we first identify four representative types of cities exemplifying distinct spatial dependency of settlement intentions. Subsequently, a geographically weighted logistic regression model is employed, revealing three distinct spatial patterns of various factors: the “South–North” pattern (gender, marital status, hukou type, migration distance, administrative scale of migration, PM2.5), the “East–West” pattern (GDP, wage level, educational attainment, population, perceived discrimination, duration of residence), and the locally distinct pattern (age, migrant household size, industrial structure). This study further explores three latent driving mechanisms behind these patterns, rooted in geographical culture, economic development, and location-specific characteristics. By constructing a “Factor-Pattern-Root” (FPR) framework and integrating perspectives from geography and sociology, this study elucidates how and why various factors exert spatially varying effects on hukou transfer intentions of China’s floating population.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng Shi & Weiwei Cao & Runhua Huang & Wei Geng, 2025. "Spatially heterogeneous drivers of hukou transfer intentions in China: a geographically weighted logistic regression analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 74(2), pages 1-30, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:74:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s00168-025-01387-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-025-01387-1
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    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

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