Can Low–Carbon City Development Stimulate Population Growth? Insights from China’s Low–Carbon Pilot Program

In line with global trends, China confronts significant environmental challenges while navigating critical shifts in its population dynamics. The low–carbon pilot program, initiated in China in 2010 and spanning over 100 cities, is dedicated to reducing carbon emissions while facilitating robust economic growth. However, the program’s impact on population growth has remained uncertain. Employing a quasi–natural experiment and the Difference–in–Difference method, this study reveals a positive association between the program and population growth. The analysis of mediating effects indicates that the program potentially stimulates population growth by attracting more Investment and reducing exhaust emissions. Nevertheless, there is a lack of evidence supporting its ability to enhance population growth through the promotion of household income. Further investigation reveals a diminishing effect of the program on population growth as cities transition from eastern to middle to western regions. Notably, no substantial heterogeneity is observed concerning the impact of GDP per capita on population growth. This research contributes empirical insights into the relationship between low–carbon programs and population growth, offering valuable guidance to municipalities seeking to bolster their populations. The potency of these strategies can be augmented by attracting investment and enhancing air quality, in contrast to a sole focus on income levels. Ultimately, the study provides actionable policy recommendations in this context.