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The effect of air pollution on migration: Evidence from China

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  • Chen, Shuai
  • Oliva, Paulina
  • Zhang, Peng

Abstract

This paper looks at the effects of air pollution on migration in China using changes in the average strength of thermal inversions over five-year periods as a source of exogenous variation for medium-run air pollution levels. Our findings suggest that air pollution is responsible for large changes in inflows and outflows of migration in China. Specifically, we find that a 10 percent increase in air pollution, holding everything else constant, is capable of reducing population through net outmigration by about 2.8 percent in a given county. We find that these inflows are primarily driven by well-educated people at the beginning of their professional careers. We also find a strong gender asymmetry in the response of mid-age adults that suggests families are splitting across counties to protect vulnerable members of the household. Our results are robust to different specifications, including a spatial lag model that accounts for localized migration spillovers and spatially correlated pollution shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Shuai & Oliva, Paulina & Zhang, Peng, 2022. "The effect of air pollution on migration: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:156:y:2022:i:c:s0304387822000153
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102833
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Air pollution; Migration; Human capital; Avoidance behavior;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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