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Climate Variability and International Migration: The Importance of the Agricultural Linkage

Author

Listed:
  • Cai, Ruohong

    (Princeton University)

  • Feng, Shuaizhang

    (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

  • Pytlikova, Mariola

    (CERGE-EI)

  • Oppenheimer, Michael

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

While there is considerable interest in understanding the climate-migration relationship, particularly in the context of concerns about global climatic change, little is known about underlying mechanisms. We analyze a unique and extensive set of panel data characterizing annual bilateral international migration flows from 163 origin countries to 42 OECD destination countries covering the last three decades. We find a positive and statistically significant relationship between temperature and international outmigration only in the most agriculture-dependent countries, consistent with the widely-documented adverse impact of temperature on agricultural productivity. In addition, migration flows to current major destinations are especially temperature-sensitive. Policies to address issues related to climate-induced international migration would be more effective if focused on the agriculture-dependent countries and especially people in those countries whose livelihoods depend on agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Ruohong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Pytlikova, Mariola & Oppenheimer, Michael, 2014. "Climate Variability and International Migration: The Importance of the Agricultural Linkage," IZA Discussion Papers 8183, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8183
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international migration; climate variability; agricultural productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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