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Are Third World Emigration Forces Abating?

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  • Timothy J. Hatton
  • Jeffrey G. Williamson

Abstract

While most observers appear to believe that Third World emigration pressure is on the rise, history suggests that migration typically follows a bell shape, in which case it might not be. This paper estimates the economic and demographic fundamentals driving emigration from the developing world to the United States since 1970. The results suggest that emigration pressure, determined largely by source country demographics, education, poverty and migrant stock dynamics, has been abating. Projections into the future suggest that it may even decline, and that its composition will be much more African and much less Hispanic.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Are Third World Emigration Forces Abating?," CID Working Papers 191, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cid:wpfacu:191
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Third World; Emigration; Development; Life Cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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