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Demographic shocks and global factor flows

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  • Jeffrey G. Williamson

Abstract

How economists view the impact of demography on economic events has changed a great deal over the past decade or so. When, in the late 1980s, Allen Kelley (1988) was writing his magisterial survey on the economic consequences of population growth in the Third World, the conventional wisdom was that Malthus did not matter much. Furthermore, the focus was on aggregate population growth. Since Kelley's 1988 survey, we have learned two important lessons that should have been obvious then, but were not: First, changes in the composition of the population often matter far more than changes in population aggregates; and second, when it comes to demographic impact, we need to think about long transitions rather than equilibrium steady states. These two lessons have taught us a great deal about the connection between demographic shocks and global factor flows--and even about growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Demographic shocks and global factor flows," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcp:y:2001:n:46:x:6
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    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/conf/conf46/conf46h1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    2. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    3. Taylor, Alan M & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1994. "Capital Flows to the New World as an Intergenerational Transfer," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 348-371, April.
    4. Taylor, Alan M., 1995. "Debt, dependence and the demographic Transition: Latin America in to the next century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 869-879, May.
    5. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 465-486, September.
    6. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1987. "Debating the British industrial revolution," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 269-292, July.
    7. Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1998. "The Age of Mass Migration: Causes and Economic Impact," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195116519.
    8. Kelley, Allen C, 1988. "Economic Consequences of Population Change in the Third World," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1685-1728, December.
    9. Williamson,Jeffrey G., 1990. "Coping with City Growth during the British Industrial Revolution," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521364805, May.
    10. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-Century Atlantic Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650592, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luca, MARCHIORI, 2007. "ChinAfrica : How can the Sino-African cooperation be beneficial for Africa ?," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007014, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    2. Jack L. King, 2001. "Operational risk: EVT models," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2011. "Are Third World Emigration Forces Abating?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 20-32, January.
    4. Efraim Sadka, 2001. "Demographic shocks and global factor flows: discussion," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
    5. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Vanishing Third World Emigrants?," NBER Working Papers 14785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Tosun, Mehmet Serkan, 2008. "Endogenous fiscal policy and capital market transmissions in the presence of demographic shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 2031-2060, June.
    7. Clark, Ximena & Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2004. "What Explains Emigration Out of Latin America?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 1871-1890, November.
    8. Narciso, Alexandre, 2010. "The impact of population ageing on international capital flows," MPRA Paper 26457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Melanie Lührmann, 2003. "Demographic Change, Foresight and International Capital Flows," MEA discussion paper series 03038, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.

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    Keywords

    Demography ; Economic conditions;

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