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Are Third World Emigration Forces Abating?

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  • Hatton, Timothy J.
  • Williamson, Jeffrey G.

Abstract

Summary Most observers appear to believe that Third World emigration pressure is on the rise. But history suggests that migration typically follows a bell shape, in which case it might be entering on the downward phase. This paper estimates the economic and demographic fundamentals driving emigration from the developing world to the United States since 1970. The results suggest that emigration pressure, determined largely by source country demographics, education, poverty, and migrant stock dynamics, has recently been abating. Projections into the future suggest that it may even decline, and that its composition will become much more African and much less Hispanic.

Suggested Citation

  • Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2011. "Are Third World Emigration Forces Abating?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 20-32, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:39:y:2011:i:1:p:20-32
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    Cited by:

    1. Cattaneo, Cristina & Peri, Giovanni, 2016. "The migration response to increasing temperatures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 127-146.
    2. Ngoc Thi Minh Tran & Michael P. Cameron & Jacques Poot, 2018. "What are Migrants Willing to Pay for Better Home Country Institutions?: The Case of Viet Nam," Working Papers in Economics 18/10, University of Waikato.
    3. Thu Dao & Frédéric Docquier & Mathilde Maurel & Pierre Schaus, 2018. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01743799, HAL.
    4. Gordon Hanson & Chen Liu & Craig McIntosh, 2017. "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Low-Skilled Immigration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 83-168.
    5. Michael A. Clemens, 2014. "Does development reduce migration?," Chapters,in: International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 6, pages 152-185 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Mariapia Mendola, 2018. "Global evidence on prospecitve migrants from developing countries," Development Working Papers 439, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 02 Jan 2019.
    7. Cai, Ruohong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Oppenheimer, Michael & Pytlikova, Mariola, 2016. "Climate variability and international migration: The importance of the agricultural linkage," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 135-151.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Third World emigration development life cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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