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Are Third World Emigration Forces Abating?

  • Hatton, Timothy J.
  • Williamson, Jeffrey G.

Summary Most observers appear to believe that Third World emigration pressure is on the rise. But history suggests that migration typically follows a bell shape, in which case it might be entering on the downward phase. This paper estimates the economic and demographic fundamentals driving emigration from the developing world to the United States since 1970. The results suggest that emigration pressure, determined largely by source country demographics, education, poverty, and migrant stock dynamics, has recently been abating. Projections into the future suggest that it may even decline, and that its composition will become much more African and much less Hispanic.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal World Development.

Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 20-32

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Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:39:y:2011:i:1:p:20-32
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev

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  1. George J. Borjas, 1994. "The Economics of Immigration," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1667-1717, December.
  2. Hatton, T.J. & Williamson, J.G., 1992. "What Drove the Mass Migrations from Europe in the Late Ninteenth Century," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1614, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2008. "Global Migration and the World Economy: Two Centuries of Policy and Performance," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262582775, June.
  4. Durand, Jorge, 2009. "Processes of Migration in Latin America and the Caribbean (1950-2008)," MPRA Paper 19207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Daniel Chiquiar & Gordon H. Hanson, 2005. "International Migration, Self-Selection, and the Distribution of Wages: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 239-281, April.
  6. Easterlin, Richard A., 1981. "Why Isn't the Whole World Developed?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(01), pages 1-17, March.
  7. Hatton, Timothy J., 2008. "The Rise and Fall of Asylum: What Happened and Why?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6752, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Pedersen, Peder J. & Pytlikova, Mariola & Smith, Nina, 2008. "Selection and network effects--Migration flows into OECD countries 1990-2000," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1160-1186, October.
  9. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Rotte, Ralph & Vogler, Michael, 1999. "The Effects of Development on Migration: Theoretical Issues and New Empirical Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 46, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Kaivan Munshi, 2003. "Networks In The Modern Economy: Mexican Migrants In The U.S. Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(2), pages 549-599, May.
  12. Ravallion, Martin & Shaohua Chen, 1996. "What can new survey data tell us about recent changes in distribution and poverty?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1694, The World Bank.
  13. Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
  14. Wegge, Simone A., 1998. "Chain Migration and Information Networks: Evidence From Nineteenth-Century Hesse-Cassel," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(04), pages 957-986, December.
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  17. repec:ilo:ilowps:338944 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Michèle V. K. Belot & Timothy J. Hatton, 2012. "Immigrant Selection in the OECD," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(4), pages 1105-1128, December.
  19. Barry R. Chiswick, 1999. "Are Immigrants Favorably Self-Selected? An Economic Analysis," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 147, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
  20. Borjas, George J, 1987. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 531-53, September.
  21. David Karemera & Victor Iwuagwu Oguledo & Bobby Davis, 2000. "A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1745-1755.
  22. Jorge Durand, 2009. "Processes of Migration in Latin America and the Caribbean (1950-2008)," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2009-24, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), revised Jul 2009.
  23. Hendrik Dalen & George Groenewold & Jeannette Schoorl, 2005. "Out of Africa: what drives the pressure to emigrate?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 741-778, November.
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