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Are Third World Emigration Forces Abating?

  • Hatton, Timothy J.
  • Williamson, Jeffrey G.

Summary Most observers appear to believe that Third World emigration pressure is on the rise. But history suggests that migration typically follows a bell shape, in which case it might be entering on the downward phase. This paper estimates the economic and demographic fundamentals driving emigration from the developing world to the United States since 1970. The results suggest that emigration pressure, determined largely by source country demographics, education, poverty, and migrant stock dynamics, has recently been abating. Projections into the future suggest that it may even decline, and that its composition will become much more African and much less Hispanic.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal World Development.

Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 20-32

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Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:39:y:2011:i:1:p:20-32
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev

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  1. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2008. "Global Migration and the World Economy: Two Centuries of Policy and Performance," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262582775, June.
  2. Michéle V.K. Belot & Timothy J. Hatton, 2008. "Immigrant Selection in the OECD," CEPR Discussion Papers 571, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  3. Borjas, George J, 1987. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 531-53, September.
  4. Hendrik Dalen & George Groenewold & Jeannette Schoorl, 2005. "Out of Africa: what drives the pressure to emigrate?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 741-778, November.
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  7. Wegge, Simone A., 1998. "Chain Migration and Information Networks: Evidence From Nineteenth-Century Hesse-Cassel," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(04), pages 957-986, December.
  8. George J. Borjas, 1994. "The Economics of Immigration," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1667-1717, December.
  9. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-63, July.
  10. Chiswick, Barry R., 2000. "Are Immigrants Favorably Self-Selected? An Economic Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 131, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 1997. "What Can New Survey Data Tell Us about Recent Changes in Distribution and Poverty?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(2), pages 357-82, May.
  12. Daniel Chiquiar & Gordon H. Hanson, 2002. "International Migration, Self-Selection, and the Distribution of Wages: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," NBER Working Papers 9242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1992. "What Drove the Mass Migrations from Europe in the Late Nineteenth Century?," NBER Historical Working Papers 0043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Jorge Durand, 2009. "Processes of Migration in Latin America and the Caribbean (1950-2008)," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2009-24, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), revised Jul 2009.
  16. Ralph Rotte & Michael Vogler, 2000. "The effects of development on migration: Theoretical issues and new empirical evidence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 485-508.
  17. David Karemera & Victor Iwuagwu Oguledo & Bobby Davis, 2000. "A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1745-1755.
  18. Faini, Riccardo & Venturini, Alessandra, 1993. "Trade, aid and migrations: Some basic policy issues," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 435-442, April.
  19. Easterlin, Richard A., 1981. "Why Isn't the Whole World Developed?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(01), pages 1-17, March.
  20. repec:ilo:ilowps:338944 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Pedersen, Peder J. & Pytlikova, Mariola & Smith, Nina, 2008. "Selection and network effects--Migration flows into OECD countries 1990-2000," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1160-1186, October.
  22. Durand, Jorge, 2009. "Processes of Migration in Latin America and the Caribbean (1950-2008)," MPRA Paper 19207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Kaivan Munshi, 2003. "Networks In The Modern Economy: Mexican Migrants In The U.S. Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(2), pages 549-599, May.
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