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Explaining US Immigration 1971-1998

Author

Listed:
  • Ximena Clark
  • Timothy J. Hatton
  • Jeffery G. Williamson

Abstract

In this paper we develop and estimate a model to explain the level and source country composition of immigration to the United States since the early 1970s. The model incorporates ratios to the US of source country income and education, and demographic structure, as well as relative inequality as suggested by the Roy model applied to migrant selection. In addition we incorporate the 'friends and relatives effect' as reflected in the stock of previous immigrants and a variety of variables representing different dimensions of the immigration quotas set by policy. We estimate our immigration model on a panel of 81 source countries for the years 1971 to 1998. The results strongly support the influence of economic and demographic variables and geographic characteristics as well as policy variables. We use the results to shed light on the factors that influenced the composition of US immigration by source region. And we provide a further check on its plausibility by simulating the effects of the key changes in immigration policy since the late 1970s.

Suggested Citation

  • Ximena Clark & Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffery G. Williamson, 2002. "Explaining US Immigration 1971-1998," CEPR Discussion Papers 453, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:auu:dpaper:453
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    File URL: https://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/cepr/DP453.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heather Antecol & Deborah A. Cobb-Clark & Stephen J. Trejo, 2003. "Immigration Policy and the Skills of Immigrants to Australia, Canada, and the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(1).
    2. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 465-486, September.
    3. Borjas, George J, 1987. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 531-553, September.
    4. David Karemera & Victor Iwuagwu Oguledo & Bobby Davis, 2000. "A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1745-1755.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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