IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/6752.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Rise and Fall of Asylum: What Happened and Why?

Author

Listed:
  • Hatton, Timothy J.

Abstract

In the last 20 years, developed countries have struggled with what seemed to be an ever-rising tide of asylum seekers, a trend that has now gone into reverse. This paper examines what happened and why. How have oppression, violence and economic conditions in origin countries shaped worldwide trends in asylum applications? And has the toughening of policy towards asylum seekers since 2001 reduced the numbers? What policies have been effective and which host countries have been most affected? This paper surveys the trends in asylum seeking since the 1980s and the literature that it has generated and it provides new regression estimates of the determinants of asylum applications up to the present. The key findings are first, that violence and terror can account for much of the variation across source countries and over time but it cannot fully explain the original surge in asylum applications during the 1980s. And second, while tougher policies did have a deterrent effect, they account for only about a third of the decline in applications since 2001.

Suggested Citation

  • Hatton, Timothy J., 2008. "The Rise and Fall of Asylum: What Happened and Why?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6752, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6752
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=6752
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ralph Rotte & Michael Vogler, 2000. "The effects of development on migration: Theoretical issues and new empirical evidence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(3), pages 485-508.
    2. Eric Neumayer, 2003. "Bogus Refugees? The Determinants of Asylum Migration to Western Europe," Labor and Demography 0311002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 May 2004.
    3. Timothy J. Hatton, 2009. "The Rise and Fall of Asylum: What Happened and Why?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(535), pages 183-213, February.
    4. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2006. "Refugees, Asylum Seekers, and Policy in Europe," Springer Books, in: Rolf J. Langhammer & Federico Foders (ed.), Labor Mobility and the World Economy, pages 249-284, Springer.
    5. Eric Neumayer, 2004. "Asylum Destination Choice," European Union Politics, , vol. 5(2), pages 155-180, June.
    6. Eric Neumayer, 2003. "Asylum Recognition Rates in Western Europe - Their Determinants, Variation and Lack of Convergence," Labor and Demography 0312004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Sep 2004.
    7. Timothy Hatton & Audrey Lim, 2005. "Australian Asylum Policy: The Tampa Effect," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 115-130.
    8. DeVoretz, Don J. & Pivnenko, Sergiy & Beiser, Morton, 2004. "The Economic Experiences of Refugees in Canada," IZA Discussion Papers 1088, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Timothy J. Hatton, 2005. "European Asylum Policy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 194(1), pages 106-119, October.
    10. Joop Hartog & Aslan Zorlu, 2009. "How important is homeland education for refugees’ economic position in The Netherlands?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(1), pages 219-246, January.
    11. Tim Hatton & Audrey Lim, 2005. "The ‘Tampa Effect’ Australian Asylum Policy In International Perspective," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2005-457, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    12. Timothy J. Hatton, 2004. "Seeking asylum in Europe [‘Violence against citizens in civil wars: looting or terror?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(38), pages 6-62.
    13. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:19:y:2004:i:38:p:5-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Christina Davenport & Will Moore & Steven Poe, 2003. "Sometimes You Just Have to Leave: Domestic Threats and Forced Migration, 1964-1989," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 27-55, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jordi Paniagua & Jesús Peiró-Palomino & Andrés J. Picazo-Tadeo, 2021. "Asylum Migration in OECD Countries: In Search of Lost Well-Being," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 1109-1137, February.
    2. Marina Murat, 2017. "Foreign Aid and responsiveness of bilateral refugee inflows," Department of Economics 0113, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    3. Graziella Bertocchi & Arcangelo Dimico & Francesco Lancia & Alessia Russo, 2017. "Youth Enfranchisement, Political Responsiveness, and Education Expenditure: Evidence from the U.S," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 130, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    4. Timothy J. Hatton, 2012. "Refugee and Asylum Migration to the OECD: A Short Overview," CEPR Discussion Papers 658, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    5. Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Peter Huber, 2015. "Auswirkungen einer Erleichterung des Arbeitsmarktzuganges für Asylsuchende in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 59410, June.
    6. Philipp Lutz & David Kaufmann & Anna Stünzi, 2020. "Humanitarian Protection as a European Public Good: The Strategic Role of States and Refugees," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 757-775, May.
    7. Timothy J. Hatton, 2013. "Refugee and asylum migration," Chapters, in: Amelie F. Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Migration, chapter 24, pages 453-469, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Langlotz, Sarah, 2019. "The effects of foreign aid on refugee flows," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 127-147.
    9. Marina Murat, 2020. "Foreign aid, bilateral asylum immigration and development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 79-114, January.
    10. Micevska, Maja, 2021. "Revisiting forced migration: A machine learning perspective," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. Hatton, Timothy J. & Moloney, Joe, 2015. "Applications for Asylum in the Developed World: Modelling Asylum Claims by Origin and Destination," CEPR Discussion Papers 10678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Marina Murat, 2017. "Foreign aid and asylum immigration. Does development matter?," Department of Economics 0120, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    13. Hatton, Timothy J., 2005. "European Asylum Policy," National Institute Economic Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 194, pages 106-119, October.
    14. Marina Murat, 2017. "Foreign aid and asylum immigration. Does development matter?," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 133, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    15. Mathias Czaika & Christopher R. Parsons, 2017. "The Gravity of High-Skilled Migration Policies," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 603-630, April.
    16. Barthel, Fabian & Neumayer, Eric, 2015. "Spatial dependence in asylum migration," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64187, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal, 2021. "Long-run economic determinants of asylum applications," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(1), pages 48-59.
    18. Facchini, Giovanni & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2011. "What drives U.S. immigration policy? Evidence from congressional roll call votes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 734-743, August.
    19. Gerard Keogh, 2016. "Quantifying the Importance of Nationality in Determining International Protection Outcomes in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(2), pages 247-270.
    20. Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2011. "Are Third World Emigration Forces Abating?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 20-32, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asylum; Immigration Policy; Refugees;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6752. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.